Statistics / Football / Australia. New South Wales NPL / Wollongong Wolves vs SD Raiders

Wollongong Wolves vs SD Raiders Statistics & Analysis

Wollongong Wolves Wollongong Wolves
Jul 18, 2026 - 08:00
2 1.28
3 1.32
xG Accuracy: 52%
SD Raiders SD Raiders
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 SD Raiders SD Raiders ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-3 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 24, 2026 · 17:26 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1621006

Closing Odds 2.11
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result SD Raiders win · Wollongong Wolves 2–3 SD Raiders
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), SD Raiders (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 6.3 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Wollongong Wolves (1X2) 34.2 43.4 -9.2
Draw (1X2) 29.7 26.3 +3.3
SD Raiders (1X2) 36.1 30.2 +5.8
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 54.5 -6.3
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 45.5 +6.3
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 51.8% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 45.5%. The difference — about 6.3 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Wollongong Wolves (1X2) 2.11 2.11 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.48 3.48 0.0
SD Raiders (1X2) 3.03 3.03 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.72 1.72 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 2.06 2.06 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: New South Wales NPL
  • Fixture: Wollongong Wolves vs SD Raiders
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-18 08:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 34.2% · Draw 29.7% · Away 36.1%
  • xG (showing): Wollongong Wolves 1.28 — SD Raiders 1.32 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 44.7% · Probability edge: +7.1 pts · Est. EV: +11.4%
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
New South Wales NPL New South Wales NPL — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 APIA Leichhardt Tigers 30 21 5 4 68
2 Sydney United 30 20 4 6 64
3 Marconi Stallions 30 19 5 6 62
4 Sutherland Sharks 30 14 4 12 46
5 Manly United 30 12 8 10 44
6 Rockdale City Suns 30 13 4 13 43
7 NWS Spirit 30 12 5 13 41
8 SD Raiders 30 12 5 13 41
9 Sydney II 30 11 8 11 41
10 Western Sydney W. II 30 11 5 14 38
11 Wollongong Wolves 30 11 5 14 38
12 St George City FA 30 10 7 13 37
13 Blacktown City 30 8 8 14 32
14 UNSW 30 9 5 16 32
15 St. George Saints 30 8 3 19 27
16 Sydney Olympic 30 6 5 19 23
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 APIA Leichhardt Tigers 30 66 35 +31 68
2 Western Sydney W. II 30 55 49 +6 38
3 Marconi Stallions 30 50 22 +28 62
4 Rockdale City Suns 30 48 42 +6 43
5 Sydney United 30 47 20 +27 64
6 Sutherland Sharks 30 46 38 +8 46
7 SD Raiders 30 44 49 -5 41
8 Blacktown City 30 41 48 -7 32
9 Manly United 30 39 35 +4 44
10 Sydney II 30 38 43 -5 41
11 UNSW 30 38 49 -11 32
12 NWS Spirit 30 37 38 -1 41
13 Wollongong Wolves 30 35 43 -8 38
14 Sydney Olympic 30 32 62 -30 23
15 St George City FA 30 30 46 -16 37
16 St. George Saints 30 28 55 -27 27