Statistics / Football / Canada. Canadian Premier League / York United vs Cavalry FC

York United vs Cavalry FC Statistics & Analysis

York United York United
Oct 03, 2026 - 16:00
3 1.40
1 2.33
xG Accuracy: 45%
Cavalry FC Cavalry FC
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Cavalry FC York United ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-2, 1-1, 1-3, 0-2, 2-2 3-1 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 27, 2026 · 03:32 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-11256486

Closing Odds 4.11
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result York United win · York United 3–1 Cavalry FC
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Over 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Over 2.5 goals by about 8.3 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
York United (1X2) 21.3 21.2 +0.1
Draw (1X2) 21.5 22.3 -0.8
Cavalry FC (1X2) 57.2 56.5 +0.7
Over 2.5 goals 72.0 63.7 +8.3
Under 2.5 goals 28.0 36.3 -8.3
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 72.0% on Over 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 63.7%. The difference — about 8.3 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
York United (1X2) 4.31 4.31 0.0
Draw (1X2) 4.11 4.11 0.0
Cavalry FC (1X2) 1.62 1.62 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.46 1.46 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 2.56 2.56 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Canadian Premier League
  • Fixture: York United vs Cavalry FC
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-03 16:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 21.3% · Draw 21.5% · Away 57.2%
  • xG (showing): York United 1.4 — Cavalry FC 2.33 (total xG ≈ 3.73)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Over 2.5 goals
  • Model: 72.0% · Implied: 63.1% · Probability edge: +8.9 pts · Est. EV: +8.7%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 69.0% · No 31.0%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-2 (9.1%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Selective Lean - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 05, 2026 (UTC)

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Canadian Premier League Canadian Premier League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Cavalry FC 25 16 5 4 53
2 Forge 24 14 6 4 48
3 Atlético Ottawa 25 12 4 9 40
4 Vancouver FC 25 9 6 10 33
5 HFX Wanderers FC 25 7 6 12 27
6 York United 24 6 9 9 27
7 Supra du Quebec 23 7 4 12 25
8 Pacific FC 23 2 8 13 14
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Cavalry FC 25 51 19 +32 53
2 York United 24 39 54 -15 27
3 Forge 24 38 20 +18 48
4 Atlético Ottawa 25 38 41 -3 40
5 HFX Wanderers FC 25 38 42 -4 27
6 Vancouver FC 25 35 33 +2 33
7 Supra du Quebec 23 31 44 -13 25
8 Pacific FC 23 30 47 -17 14
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Cavalry FC 25 7.3 2.4 +4.9 53
2 Pacific FC 23 12.1 9.3 +2.8 14
3 Forge 24 8.3 6.8 +1.5 48
4 Vancouver FC 25 6.4 5.8 +0.6 33
5 Supra du Quebec 23 9.9 10.1 -0.2 25
6 HFX Wanderers FC 25 9.0 10.8 -1.8 27
7 Atlético Ottawa 25 6.8 9.3 -2.5 40
8 York United 24 7.3 12.5 -5.2 27
Canadian Premier League Canada. Canadian Premier League Predictions