Atlético Ottawa vs Cavalry FC Statistics & Analysis

Atlético Ottawa

Sep 30, 2026 - 23:00

3 1.42

2 2.12

xG Accuracy: 63%

Cavalry FC

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Cavalry FC Atlético Ottawa ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-2, 1-1, 2-2, 1-3, 0-2 3-2 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 24, 2026 · 01:31 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10590125

Closing Odds 1.64

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Atlético Ottawa win · Atlético Ottawa 3–2 Cavalry FC

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Atlético Ottawa (1X2), Over 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Over 2.5 goals by about 5.3 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Atlético Ottawa (1X2)	24.4	21.9	+2.5
Draw (1X2)	23.2	22.3	+0.9
Cavalry FC (1X2)	52.4	55.9	-3.4
Over 2.5 goals	68.7	63.4	+5.3
Under 2.5 goals	31.4	36.6	-5.2

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 68.7% on Over 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 63.4%. The difference — about 5.3 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)
Atlético Ottawa (1X2)	4.19	4.19
Draw (1X2)	4.11	4.11
Cavalry FC (1X2)	1.64	1.64
Over 2.5 goals	1.47	1.47
Under 2.5 goals	2.55	2.55

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: Canadian Premier League
Fixture: Atlético Ottawa vs Cavalry FC
Kickoff: 2026-09-30 23:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 24.4% · Draw 23.2% · Away 52.4%
xG (showing): Atlético Ottawa 1.42 — Cavalry FC 2.12 (total xG ≈ 3.54)
Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): BTTS Yes
Model: 67.9% · Implied: 60.3% · Probability edge: +7.6 pts · Est. EV: +6.6%
BTTS (model): Yes 67.9% · No 32.1%
Correct score (top bin): 1-2 (9.3%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

Explore More Predictions Content

Get Premium Predictions for Atlético Ottawa & Cavalry FC!

Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.

Subscribe Now

Back to Statistics

Canadian Premier League — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Cavalry FC	23	16	5	2	53
2	Forge	23	14	5	4	47
3	Atlético Ottawa	24	11	4	9	37
4	Vancouver FC	25	9	6	10	33
5	HFX Wanderers FC	24	7	5	12	26
6	Supra du Quebec	23	7	4	12	25
7	York United	23	5	9	9	24
8	Pacific FC	23	2	8	13	14

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Cavalry FC	23	48	13	+35	53
2	York United	23	36	53	-17	24
3	Forge	23	35	17	+18	47
4	Vancouver FC	25	35	33	+2	33
5	Atlético Ottawa	24	35	39	-4	37
6	HFX Wanderers FC	24	35	39	-4	26
7	Supra du Quebec	23	31	44	-13	25
8	Pacific FC	23	30	47	-17	14

#	TEAM	MP	xG	xGC	+/-	PTS
1	Cavalry FC	23	7.3	2.4	+4.9	53
2	Pacific FC	23	12.1	9.3	+2.8	14
3	Forge	23	8.3	6.8	+1.5	47
4	Vancouver FC	25	6.4	5.8	+0.6	33
5	Supra du Quebec	23	9.9	10.1	-0.2	25
6	HFX Wanderers FC	24	9.0	10.8	-1.8	26
7	Atlético Ottawa	24	6.8	9.3	-2.5	37
8	York United	23	7.3	12.5	-5.2	24