Atlético Ottawa vs Supra du Quebec Statistics & Analysis

Atlético Ottawa

Sep 20, 2026 - 16:10

0 1.60

2 1.88

xG Accuracy: 62%

⚽

Supra du Quebec

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Supra du Quebec Supra du Quebec ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-2, 2-1, 2-2, 0-1 0-2 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 14, 2026 · 02:20 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8688290

Closing Odds 2.35

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Supra du Quebec win · Atlético Ottawa 0–2 Supra du Quebec

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE5 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Supra du Quebec (1X2), Over 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Over 2.5 goals by about 7.0 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Atlético Ottawa (1X2)	31.9	39.0	-7.1
Draw (1X2)	24.6	23.4	+1.2
Supra du Quebec (1X2)	43.5	37.6	+5.9
Over 2.5 goals	67.5	60.5	+7.0
Under 2.5 goals	32.5	39.5	-7.0

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 67.5% on Over 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 60.5%. The difference — about 7.0 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE5 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE5)
Atlético Ottawa (1X2)	2.35	2.35
Draw (1X2)	3.92	3.92
Supra du Quebec (1X2)	2.44	2.44
Over 2.5 goals	1.54	1.54
Under 2.5 goals	2.36	2.36

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: Canadian Premier League
Fixture: Atlético Ottawa vs Supra du Quebec
Kickoff: 2026-09-20 16:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 31.9% · Draw 24.6% · Away 43.5%
xG (showing): Atlético Ottawa 1.6 — Supra du Quebec 1.88 (total xG ≈ 3.48)
Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Over 2.5 goals
Model: 67.5% · Implied: 60.3% · Probability edge: +7.2 pts · Est. EV: +8.0%
BTTS (model): Yes 68.8% · No 31.2%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (9.3%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

Explore More Predictions Content

Get Premium Predictions for Atlético Ottawa & Supra du Quebec!

Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.

Subscribe Now

Back to Statistics

Canadian Premier League — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Cavalry FC	23	16	5	2	53
2	Forge	22	14	4	4	46
3	Atlético Ottawa	24	11	4	9	37
4	Vancouver FC	24	9	5	10	32
5	HFX Wanderers FC	24	7	5	12	26
6	Supra du Quebec	23	7	4	12	25
7	York United	22	5	9	8	24
8	Pacific FC	22	1	8	13	11

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Cavalry FC	23	48	13	+35	53
2	Atlético Ottawa	24	35	39	-4	37
3	HFX Wanderers FC	24	35	39	-4	26
4	Forge	22	34	16	+18	46
5	Vancouver FC	24	34	32	+2	32
6	York United	22	33	49	-16	24
7	Supra du Quebec	23	31	44	-13	25
8	Pacific FC	22	26	44	-18	11

#	TEAM	MP	xG	xGC	+/-	PTS
1	Cavalry FC	23	7.3	2.4	+4.9	53
2	Pacific FC	22	12.1	9.3	+2.8	11
3	Forge	22	8.3	6.8	+1.5	46
4	Vancouver FC	24	6.4	5.8	+0.6	32
5	Supra du Quebec	23	9.9	10.1	-0.2	25
6	HFX Wanderers FC	24	9.0	10.8	-1.8	26
7	Atlético Ottawa	24	6.8	9.3	-2.5	37
8	York United	22	7.3	12.5	-5.2	24