Statistics / Football / Canada. Canadian Premier League / Cavalry FC vs Forge

Cavalry FC vs Forge Statistics & Analysis

Cavalry FC Cavalry FC
Sep 19, 2026 - 21:10
1 1.97
1 1.53
xG Accuracy: 66%
Forge Forge
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Cavalry FC Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 2-1, 1-2, 2-2, 1-0 1-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 14, 2026 · 03:44 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8709963

Closing Odds 3.74
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Draw · Cavalry FC 1–1 Forge
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Forge (1X2), Over 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Over 2.5 goals by about 22.2 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Cavalry FC (1X2) 46.9 47.1 -0.2
Draw (1X2) 24.1 28.4 -4.3
Forge (1X2) 29.0 24.4 +4.5
Over 2.5 goals 67.9 45.6 +22.2
Under 2.5 goals 32.1 54.4 -22.2
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 67.9% on Over 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 45.6%. The difference — about 22.2 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Cavalry FC (1X2) 1.94 1.94 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.22 3.22 0.0
Forge (1X2) 3.74 3.74 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 2.06 2.06 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 1.73 1.73 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Canadian Premier League
  • Fixture: Cavalry FC vs Forge
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-19 21:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 46.9% · Draw 24.1% · Away 29.0%
  • xG (showing): Cavalry FC 1.97 — Forge 1.53 (total xG ≈ 3.5)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Over 2.5 goals
  • Model: 67.9% · Implied: 45.5% · Probability edge: +22.4 pts · Est. EV: +42.6%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 68.6% · No 31.4%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (9.1%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Canadian Premier League Canadian Premier League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Cavalry FC 23 16 5 2 53
2 Forge 22 14 4 4 46
3 Atlético Ottawa 24 11 4 9 37
4 Vancouver FC 24 9 5 10 32
5 HFX Wanderers FC 24 7 5 12 26
6 Supra du Quebec 23 7 4 12 25
7 York United 22 5 9 8 24
8 Pacific FC 22 1 8 13 11
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Cavalry FC 23 48 13 +35 53
2 Atlético Ottawa 24 35 39 -4 37
3 HFX Wanderers FC 24 35 39 -4 26
4 Forge 22 34 16 +18 46
5 Vancouver FC 24 34 32 +2 32
6 York United 22 33 49 -16 24
7 Supra du Quebec 23 31 44 -13 25
8 Pacific FC 22 26 44 -18 11
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Cavalry FC 23 7.3 2.4 +4.9 53
2 Pacific FC 22 12.1 9.3 +2.8 11
3 Forge 22 8.3 6.8 +1.5 46
4 Vancouver FC 24 6.4 5.8 +0.6 32
5 Supra du Quebec 23 9.9 10.1 -0.2 25
6 HFX Wanderers FC 24 9.0 10.8 -1.8 26
7 Atlético Ottawa 24 6.8 9.3 -2.5 37
8 York United 22 7.3 12.5 -5.2 24
Canadian Premier League Canada. Canadian Premier League Predictions