Statistics / Football / Canada. Canadian Premier League / Supra du Quebec vs Atlético Ottawa

Supra du Quebec vs Atlético Ottawa Statistics & Analysis

⚽
Supra du Quebec
Aug 16, 2026 - 16:00
1 1.89
2 2.12
xG Accuracy: 76%
Atlético Ottawa Atlético Ottawa
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Atlético Ottawa Atlético Ottawa ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-2, 2-2, 1-1, 2-1, 1-3 1-2 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 11, 2026 · 01:40 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3610945

Closing Odds 2.87
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Atlético Ottawa win · Supra du Quebec 1–2 Atlético Ottawa
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade A

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Atlético Ottawa (1X2), Over 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Over 2.5 goals by about 17.1 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Supra du Quebec (1X2) 34.3 42.4 -8.1
Draw (1X2) 22.4 25.7 -3.3
Atlético Ottawa (1X2) 43.3 31.9 +11.3
Over 2.5 goals 76.3 59.2 +17.1
Under 2.5 goals 23.7 40.8 -17.1
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 76.3% on Over 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 59.2%. The difference — about 17.1 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Supra du Quebec (1X2) 2.16 2.16 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.57 3.57 0.0
Atlético Ottawa (1X2) 2.87 2.87 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.57 1.57 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 2.28 2.28 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Canadian Premier League
  • Fixture: Supra du Quebec vs Atlético Ottawa
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-16 16:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 34.3% · Draw 22.4% · Away 43.3%
  • xG (showing): Supra du Quebec 1.89 — Atlético Ottawa 2.12 (total xG ≈ 4.01)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Over 2.5 goals
  • Model: 76.3% · Implied: 59.0% · Probability edge: +17.3 pts · Est. EV: +22.1%
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Canadian Premier League Canadian Premier League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Cavalry FC 23 16 5 2 53
2 Forge 22 14 4 4 46
3 Atlético Ottawa 24 11 4 9 37
4 Vancouver FC 24 9 5 10 32
5 HFX Wanderers FC 24 7 5 12 26
6 Supra du Quebec 23 7 4 12 25
7 York United 22 5 9 8 24
8 Pacific FC 22 1 8 13 11
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Cavalry FC 23 48 13 +35 53
2 Atlético Ottawa 24 35 39 -4 37
3 HFX Wanderers FC 24 35 39 -4 26
4 Forge 22 34 16 +18 46
5 Vancouver FC 24 34 32 +2 32
6 York United 22 33 49 -16 24
7 Supra du Quebec 23 31 44 -13 25
8 Pacific FC 22 26 44 -18 11
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Cavalry FC 23 7.3 2.4 +4.9 53
2 Pacific FC 22 12.1 9.3 +2.8 11
3 Forge 22 8.3 6.8 +1.5 46
4 Vancouver FC 24 6.4 5.8 +0.6 32
5 Supra du Quebec 23 9.9 10.1 -0.2 25
6 HFX Wanderers FC 24 9.0 10.8 -1.8 26
7 Atlético Ottawa 24 6.8 9.3 -2.5 37
8 York United 22 7.3 12.5 -5.2 24
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