Vancouver FC vs Pacific FC Statistics & Analysis

Vancouver FC

Aug 15, 2026 - 01:00

1 2.05

1 1.93

xG Accuracy: 58%

Pacific FC

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Vancouver FC Draw ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 2-1, 1-1, 2-2, 1-2, 3-1 1-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 09, 2026 · 00:50 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3334094

Closing Odds 1.56

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Draw · Vancouver FC 1–1 Pacific FC

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Pacific FC (1X2), Over 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Pacific FC (1X2) by about 10.6 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Vancouver FC (1X2)	46.5	58.7	-12.3
Draw (1X2)	22.8	21.1	+1.7
Pacific FC (1X2)	30.7	20.1	+10.6
Over 2.5 goals	75.9	67.3	+8.6
Under 2.5 goals	24.1	32.7	-8.6

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 30.7% on Pacific FC (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 20.1%. The difference — about 10.6 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)
Vancouver FC (1X2)	1.56	1.56
Draw (1X2)	4.34	4.34
Pacific FC (1X2)	4.55	4.55
Over 2.5 goals	1.38	1.38
Under 2.5 goals	2.84	2.84

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: Canadian Premier League
Fixture: Vancouver FC vs Pacific FC
Kickoff: 2026-08-15 01:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 46.5% · Draw 22.8% · Away 30.7%
xG (showing): Vancouver FC 2.05 — Pacific FC 1.93 (total xG ≈ 3.98)
Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): BTTS Yes
Model: 75.4% · Implied: 61.9% · Probability edge: +13.5 pts · Est. EV: +27.4%
BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
Correct score (top bin): N/A

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Selective Lean - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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Canadian Premier League — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Cavalry FC	23	16	5	2	53
2	Forge	23	14	5	4	47
3	Atlético Ottawa	24	11	4	9	37
4	Vancouver FC	25	9	6	10	33
5	HFX Wanderers FC	24	7	5	12	26
6	Supra du Quebec	23	7	4	12	25
7	York United	23	5	9	9	24
8	Pacific FC	23	2	8	13	14

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Cavalry FC	23	48	13	+35	53
2	York United	23	36	53	-17	24
3	Forge	23	35	17	+18	47
4	Vancouver FC	25	35	33	+2	33
5	Atlético Ottawa	24	35	39	-4	37
6	HFX Wanderers FC	24	35	39	-4	26
7	Supra du Quebec	23	31	44	-13	25
8	Pacific FC	23	30	47	-17	14

#	TEAM	MP	xG	xGC	+/-	PTS
1	Cavalry FC	23	7.3	2.4	+4.9	53
2	Pacific FC	23	12.1	9.3	+2.8	14
3	Forge	23	8.3	6.8	+1.5	47
4	Vancouver FC	25	6.4	5.8	+0.6	33
5	Supra du Quebec	23	9.9	10.1	-0.2	25
6	HFX Wanderers FC	24	9.0	10.8	-1.8	26
7	Atlético Ottawa	24	6.8	9.3	-2.5	37
8	York United	23	7.3	12.5	-5.2	24