Supra du Quebec vs Vancouver FC Statistics & Analysis

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Supra du Quebec

Jul 17, 2026 - 23:00

1 1.31

5 1.23

xG Accuracy: 33%

Vancouver FC

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Supra du Quebec Vancouver FC ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 0-0 1-5 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 24, 2026 · 17:00 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1619642

Closing Odds 3.87

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Vancouver FC win · Supra du Quebec 1–5 Vancouver FC

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 14.2 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Supra du Quebec (1X2)	36.9	39.1	-2.2
Draw (1X2)	30.0	23.7	+6.4
Vancouver FC (1X2)	33.1	37.2	-4.1
Over 2.5 goals	46.6	60.8	-14.2
Under 2.5 goals	53.4	39.2	+14.2

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 53.4% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 39.2%. The difference — about 14.2 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)
Supra du Quebec (1X2)	2.34	2.34
Draw (1X2)	3.87	3.87
Vancouver FC (1X2)	2.46	2.46
Over 2.5 goals	1.53	1.53
Under 2.5 goals	2.37	2.37

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: Canadian Premier League
Fixture: Supra du Quebec vs Vancouver FC
Kickoff: 2026-07-17 23:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 36.9% · Draw 30.0% · Away 33.1%
xG (showing): Supra du Quebec 1.31 — Vancouver FC 1.23 (total xG ≈ 2.54)
Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Under 2.5 goals
Model: 53.4% · Implied: 40.6% · Probability edge: +12.8 pts · Est. EV: +28.2%
BTTS (model): Yes 53.3% · No 46.7%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.7%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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Canadian Premier League — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Cavalry FC	23	16	5	2	53
2	Forge	23	14	5	4	47
3	Atlético Ottawa	24	11	4	9	37
4	Vancouver FC	25	9	6	10	33
5	HFX Wanderers FC	24	7	5	12	26
6	Supra du Quebec	23	7	4	12	25
7	York United	23	5	9	9	24
8	Pacific FC	23	2	8	13	14

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Cavalry FC	23	48	13	+35	53
2	York United	23	36	53	-17	24
3	Forge	23	35	17	+18	47
4	Vancouver FC	25	35	33	+2	33
5	Atlético Ottawa	24	35	39	-4	37
6	HFX Wanderers FC	24	35	39	-4	26
7	Supra du Quebec	23	31	44	-13	25
8	Pacific FC	23	30	47	-17	14

#	TEAM	MP	xG	xGC	+/-	PTS
1	Cavalry FC	23	7.3	2.4	+4.9	53
2	Pacific FC	23	12.1	9.3	+2.8	14
3	Forge	23	8.3	6.8	+1.5	47
4	Vancouver FC	25	6.4	5.8	+0.6	33
5	Supra du Quebec	23	9.9	10.1	-0.2	25
6	HFX Wanderers FC	24	9.0	10.8	-1.8	26
7	Atlético Ottawa	24	6.8	9.3	-2.5	37
8	York United	23	7.3	12.5	-5.2	24