Forge vs Pacific FC Statistics & Analysis

Forge

Oct 07, 2026 - 23:00

3 1.93

0 2.01

xG Accuracy: 43%

Pacific FC

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Pacific FC Forge ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-2, 1-1, 2-2, 2-1, 1-3 3-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 13:44 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1450515

Closing Odds 1.27

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Forge win · Forge 3–0 Pacific FC

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE5 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Pacific FC (1X2) meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Pacific FC (1X2) by about 30.4 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Forge (1X2)	37.0	72.7	-35.7
Draw (1X2)	22.8	17.6	+5.2
Pacific FC (1X2)	40.1	9.7	+30.4

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 40.1% on Pacific FC (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 9.7%. The difference — about 30.4 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE5 → PRE1 · Book: draftkings

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE5)	Closing (PRE1)
Forge (1X2)	1.27	1.27
Draw (1X2)	5.25	5.25
Pacific FC (1X2)	9.5	9.5

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Model favours Pacific FC; market prices Forge instead — inputs may be missing or stale.

Model: Forge 1.93 xG vs Pacific FC 2.01 → Pacific FC 40.1%
Market: Forge ~9.7% implied
Validation failed — do not treat 1X2 EV as actionable.

Do not act on 1X2 value until validation passes. Structural leans (O/U, BTTS) need separate odds review.

Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 (Under 2.5 24.7% · Over 2.5 75.3%); BTTS Yes (Yes 75.0% · No 25.0%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 08, 2026 (UTC)

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Canadian Premier League — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Cavalry FC	25	16	5	4	53
2	Forge	24	14	6	4	48
3	Atlético Ottawa	25	12	4	9	40
4	Vancouver FC	25	9	6	10	33
5	Supra du Quebec	24	8	4	12	28
6	HFX Wanderers FC	25	7	6	12	27
7	York United	24	6	9	9	27
8	Pacific FC	24	2	8	14	14

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Cavalry FC	25	51	19	+32	53
2	York United	24	39	54	-15	27
3	Forge	24	38	20	+18	48
4	Atlético Ottawa	25	38	41	-3	40
5	HFX Wanderers FC	25	38	42	-4	27
6	Supra du Quebec	24	36	44	-8	28
7	Vancouver FC	25	35	33	+2	33
8	Pacific FC	24	30	52	-22	14

#	TEAM	MP	xG	xGC	+/-	PTS
1	Cavalry FC	25	7.3	2.4	+4.9	53
2	Pacific FC	24	12.1	9.3	+2.8	14
3	Forge	24	8.3	6.8	+1.5	48
4	Vancouver FC	25	6.4	5.8	+0.6	33
5	Supra du Quebec	24	9.9	10.1	-0.2	28
6	HFX Wanderers FC	25	9.0	10.8	-1.8	27
7	Atlético Ottawa	25	6.8	9.3	-2.5	40
8	York United	24	7.3	12.5	-5.2	27