Forge vs Vancouver FC Statistics & Analysis

Forge

Jul 01, 2026 - 17:00

3 1.47

2 1.13

xG Accuracy: 52%

Vancouver FC

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Forge Forge ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 3-2 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 31, 2026 · 18:19 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2641522

Closing Odds 1.51

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Forge win · Forge 3–2 Vancouver FC

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Vancouver FC (1X2) meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Vancouver FC (1X2) by about 6.4 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Forge (1X2)	48.4	60.2	-11.9
Draw (1X2)	27.6	22.2	+5.5
Vancouver FC (1X2)	24.0	17.6	+6.4
Over 2.5 goals	48.2	47.6	+0.6
Under 2.5 goals	51.8	52.4	-0.6

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 24.0% on Vancouver FC (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 17.6%. The difference — about 6.4 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)
Forge (1X2)	1.51	1.51
Draw (1X2)	4.1	4.1
Vancouver FC (1X2)	5.18	5.18
Over 2.5 goals	1.98	1.98
Under 2.5 goals	1.8	1.8

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: Canadian Premier League
Fixture: Forge vs Vancouver FC
Kickoff: 2026-07-01 17:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 48.4% · Draw 27.7% · Away 24.0%
xG (showing): Forge 1.47 — Vancouver FC 1.13 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): BTTS Yes
Model: 53.7% · Implied: 46.6% · Probability edge: +7.1 pts · Est. EV: +7.4%
BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
Correct score (top bin): N/A

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Selective Lean - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Canadian Premier League — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Cavalry FC	23	16	5	2	53
2	Forge	22	14	4	4	46
3	Atlético Ottawa	24	11	4	9	37
4	Vancouver FC	24	9	5	10	32
5	HFX Wanderers FC	24	7	5	12	26
6	Supra du Quebec	23	7	4	12	25
7	York United	22	5	9	8	24
8	Pacific FC	22	1	8	13	11

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Cavalry FC	23	48	13	+35	53
2	Atlético Ottawa	24	35	39	-4	37
3	HFX Wanderers FC	24	35	39	-4	26
4	Forge	22	34	16	+18	46
5	Vancouver FC	24	34	32	+2	32
6	York United	22	33	49	-16	24
7	Supra du Quebec	23	31	44	-13	25
8	Pacific FC	22	26	44	-18	11

#	TEAM	MP	xG	xGC	+/-	PTS
1	Cavalry FC	23	7.3	2.4	+4.9	53
2	Pacific FC	22	12.1	9.3	+2.8	11
3	Forge	22	8.3	6.8	+1.5	46
4	Vancouver FC	24	6.4	5.8	+0.6	32
5	Supra du Quebec	23	9.9	10.1	-0.2	25
6	HFX Wanderers FC	24	9.0	10.8	-1.8	26
7	Atlético Ottawa	24	6.8	9.3	-2.5	37
8	York United	22	7.3	12.5	-5.2	24