Statistics / Football / Finland. Ykkönen / TPV vs Rops

TPV vs Rops Statistics & Analysis

TPV TPV
Aug 01, 2026 - 15:00
6 1.29
3 1.31
xG Accuracy: 17%
Rops Rops
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (9 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Rops TPV ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 6-3 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 26, 2026 · 04:00 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1815262

Closing Odds 1.56
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result TPV win · TPV 6–3 Rops
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE5 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices TPV (1X2), Draw (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 17.8 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
TPV (1X2) 34.7 19.0 +15.8
Draw (1X2) 29.7 21.6 +8.1
Rops (1X2) 35.6 59.4 -23.8
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 66.0 -17.8
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 34.0 +17.8
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 51.8% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 34.0%. The difference — about 17.8 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE5 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE5) Implied Δ (pp)
TPV (1X2) 4.89 4.89 0.0
Draw (1X2) 4.29 4.29 0.0
Rops (1X2) 1.56 1.56 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.42 1.42 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 2.75 2.75 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Ykkönen
  • Fixture: TPV vs Rops
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-01 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 34.7% · Draw 29.7% · Away 35.6%
  • xG (showing): TPV 1.29 — Rops 1.31 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 24, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Ykkönen Ykkönen — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Tampere United 24 14 5 5 47
2 SalPa 24 12 6 6 42
3 Rops 24 11 8 5 41
4 PKKU 24 10 8 6 38
5 OLS 24 10 8 6 38
6 VJS 24 9 10 5 37
7 FC jazz 24 10 6 8 36
8 JJK 24 8 7 9 31
9 TPV 23 7 6 10 27
10 Inter Turku II 23 5 5 13 20
11 KPV-j 24 5 3 16 18
12 KuPS Akatemia 24 3 6 15 15
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 JJK 24 55 49 +6 31
2 Tampere United 24 54 26 +28 47
3 SalPa 24 51 42 +9 42
4 Rops 24 49 36 +13 41
5 OLS 24 47 37 +10 38
6 PKKU 24 45 34 +11 38
7 VJS 24 42 32 +10 37
8 KuPS Akatemia 24 41 58 -17 15
9 FC jazz 24 35 31 +4 36
10 TPV 23 34 42 -8 27
11 Inter Turku II 23 33 53 -20 20
12 KPV-j 24 27 73 -46 18
Ykkönen Finland. Ykkönen Predictions