Statistics / Football / Finland. Ykkönen / PKKU vs TPV

PKKU vs TPV Statistics & Analysis

PKKU PKKU
Jun 14, 2026 - 11:00
2 1.30
2 1.30
xG Accuracy: 68%
TPV TPV
Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 PKKU Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-2 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 04, 2026 · 21:00 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3004376

Closing Odds 1.45
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Draw · PKKU 2–2 TPV
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

The largest late implied swing on this feed was about 1.24 percentage points on PKKU (1X2) between PRE30 and PRE1.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 18.9 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
PKKU (1X2) 43.0 64.0 -21.0
Draw (1X2) 27.5 19.7 +7.8
TPV (1X2) 29.5 16.4 +13.2
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 67.1 -18.9
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 32.9 +18.9
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 51.8% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 32.9%. The difference — about 18.9 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
PKKU (1X2) 1.48 1.45 +1.2
Draw (1X2) 4.61 4.71 -0.4
TPV (1X2) 5.41 5.67 -0.8
Over 2.5 goals 1.39 1.39 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 2.84 2.84 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Ykkönen
  • Fixture: PKKU vs TPV
  • Kickoff: 2026-06-14 11:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 43.0% · Draw 27.5% · Away 29.5%
  • xG (showing): PKKU 1.3 — TPV 1.3 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Ykkönen Ykkönen — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Tampere United 25 15 5 5 50
2 Rops 25 12 8 5 44
3 SalPa 25 12 6 7 42
4 OLS 25 11 8 6 41
5 VJS 25 10 10 5 40
6 FC jazz 25 11 6 8 39
7 PKKU 25 10 8 7 38
8 JJK 25 8 7 10 31
9 TPV 25 7 6 12 27
10 Inter Turku II 24 6 5 13 23
11 KPV-j 25 5 3 17 18
12 KuPS Akatemia 24 3 6 15 15
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Tampere United 25 58 26 +32 50
2 JJK 25 55 53 +2 31
3 Rops 25 52 37 +15 44
4 SalPa 25 52 45 +7 42
5 OLS 25 50 37 +13 41
6 PKKU 25 45 37 +8 38
7 VJS 25 44 32 +12 40
8 KuPS Akatemia 24 41 58 -17 15
9 FC jazz 25 38 32 +6 39
10 Inter Turku II 24 36 53 -17 23
11 TPV 25 35 48 -13 27
12 KPV-j 25 27 75 -48 18