Statistics / Football / Uzbekistan. Super League / Qizilqum vs Surkhon

Qizilqum vs Surkhon Statistics & Analysis

Qizilqum Qizilqum
Oct 10, 2026 - 13:00
0 1.22
0 1.38
xG Accuracy: 49%
Surkhon Surkhon
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Surkhon Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 05, 2026 · 01:57 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-13207116

Closing Odds 3.04
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Draw · Qizilqum 0–0 Surkhon
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE20 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Surkhon (1X2) meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Surkhon (1X2) by about 8.7 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Qizilqum (1X2) 31.5 39.8 -8.3
Draw (1X2) 29.5 29.9 -0.4
Surkhon (1X2) 39.0 30.2 +8.7
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 39.0% on Surkhon (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 30.2%. The difference — about 8.7 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE20 → PRE1 · Book: ggbet

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE20) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Qizilqum (1X2) 2.31 2.31 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.07 3.07 0.0
Surkhon (1X2) 3.04 3.04 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Super League
  • Fixture: Qizilqum vs Surkhon
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-10 13:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 31.5% · Draw 29.5% · Away 39.0%
  • xG (showing): Qizilqum 1.22 — Surkhon 1.38 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Over 2.5 goals
  • Model: 48.2% · Implied: 41.4% · Probability edge: +6.8 pts · Est. EV: +11.3%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 11, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Super League Super League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Neftchi 22 16 3 3 51
2 Pakhtakor 22 14 7 1 49
3 Navbahor 22 13 5 4 44
4 Olmaliq 22 10 5 7 35
5 Lokomotiv 22 10 5 7 35
6 Nasaf 22 9 7 6 34
7 Buxoro 22 10 4 8 34
8 Andijan 22 9 3 10 30
9 Dinamo Samarqand 22 8 6 8 30
10 Qizilqum 22 9 2 11 29
11 Sogdiana 22 8 4 10 28
12 Surkhon 22 7 5 10 26
13 Bunyodkor 22 7 1 14 22
14 Xorazm 22 5 6 11 21
15 Kokand-1912 22 4 8 10 20
16 Mash'al 22 1 1 20 4
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Neftchi 22 50 17 +33 51
2 Pakhtakor 22 39 20 +19 49
3 Navbahor 22 39 21 +18 44
4 Sogdiana 22 38 43 -5 28
5 Lokomotiv 22 36 28 +8 35
6 Nasaf 22 33 21 +12 34
7 Dinamo Samarqand 22 33 34 -1 30
8 Buxoro 22 32 29 +3 34
9 Olmaliq 22 31 29 +2 35
10 Andijan 22 27 28 -1 30
11 Qizilqum 22 23 30 -7 29
12 Bunyodkor 22 22 36 -14 22
13 Surkhon 22 19 28 -9 26
14 Kokand-1912 22 19 30 -11 20
15 Xorazm 22 18 32 -14 21
16 Mash'al 22 11 44 -33 4
Super League Uzbekistan. Super League Predictions