Statistics / Football / Latvia. Virsliga / FK Liepaja vs BFC Daugavpils

FK Liepaja vs BFC Daugavpils Statistics & Analysis

FK Liepaja FK Liepaja
Sep 19, 2026 - 11:00
0 1.37
0 1.23
xG Accuracy: 49%
BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 FK Liepaja Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 14, 2026 · 00:59 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8659120

Closing Odds 3.53
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Draw · FK Liepaja 0–0 BFC Daugavpils
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

The largest late implied swing on this feed was about 5.08 percentage points on FK Liepaja (1X2) between PRE30 and PRE1.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 9.7 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
FK Liepaja (1X2) 38.5 41.2 -2.8
Draw (1X2) 29.6 26.3 +3.3
BFC Daugavpils (1X2) 31.9 32.5 -0.5
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 57.9 -9.7
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 42.1 +9.7
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 51.8% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 42.1%. The difference — about 9.7 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
FK Liepaja (1X2) 2.0 2.25 -5.1
Draw (1X2) 3.62 3.53 +0.7
BFC Daugavpils (1X2) 3.3 2.86 +4.4
Over 2.5 goals 1.61 1.63 -0.3
Under 2.5 goals 2.24 2.24 +0.3

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Virsliga
  • Fixture: FK Liepaja vs BFC Daugavpils
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-19 11:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 38.5% · Draw 29.6% · Away 31.9%
  • xG (showing): FK Liepaja 1.37 — BFC Daugavpils 1.23 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): BTTS No
  • Model: 45.6% · Implied: 39.0% · Probability edge: +6.6 pts · Est. EV: +14.0%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Virsliga Virsliga — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Rīgas FS 30 23 5 2 74
2 Riga 31 22 7 2 73
3 Auda 31 18 7 6 61
4 FK Liepaja 31 12 7 12 43
5 BFC Daugavpils 31 10 9 12 39
6 Super Nova 30 10 5 15 35
7 FS Jelgava 31 8 8 15 32
8 Grobiņa 31 5 11 15 26
9 Tukums 31 5 9 17 24
10 Ogre United 31 4 6 21 18
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Riga 31 86 30 +56 73
2 Rīgas FS 30 71 22 +49 74
3 Auda 31 49 30 +19 61
4 Tukums 31 44 61 -17 24
5 FK Liepaja 31 41 43 -2 43
6 BFC Daugavpils 31 35 35 0 39
7 FS Jelgava 31 32 49 -17 32
8 Ogre United 31 30 76 -46 18
9 Super Nova 30 29 40 -11 35
10 Grobiņa 31 21 52 -31 26
Virsliga Latvia. Virsliga Predictions