Statistics / Football / Latvia. Virsliga / FS Jelgava vs Super Nova

FS Jelgava vs Super Nova Statistics & Analysis

FS Jelgava FS Jelgava
Sep 05, 2026 - 14:00
0 1.32
1 1.28
xG Accuracy: 64%
Super Nova Super Nova
Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 FS Jelgava Super Nova ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 30, 2026 · 02:25 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-6143637

Closing Odds 1.81
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Super Nova win · FS Jelgava 0–1 Super Nova
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): +37.5%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Super Nova (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Super Nova (1X2) by about 10.8 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
FS Jelgava (1X2) 36.1 51.2 -15.1
Draw (1X2) 29.7 25.3 +4.3
Super Nova (1X2) 34.2 23.5 +10.8
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 53.0 -4.8
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 47.0 +4.8
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 34.2% on Super Nova (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 23.5%. The difference — about 10.8 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
FS Jelgava (1X2) 1.81 1.81 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.66 3.66 0.0
Super Nova (1X2) 3.95 3.95 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.78 1.78 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 2.01 2.01 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Virsliga
  • Fixture: FS Jelgava vs Super Nova
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-05 14:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.2%
  • xG (showing): FS Jelgava 1.32 — Super Nova 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 15, 2026 (UTC)

Get Premium Predictions for FS Jelgava & Super Nova!

Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.

Subscribe Now
Back to Statistics
Virsliga Virsliga — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Rīgas FS 29 23 4 2 73
2 Riga 29 20 7 2 67
3 Auda 29 17 6 6 57
4 FK Liepaja 30 12 6 12 42
5 BFC Daugavpils 30 10 8 12 38
6 Super Nova 28 10 5 13 35
7 FS Jelgava 30 8 8 14 32
8 Grobiņa 30 5 10 15 25
9 Tukums 30 5 8 17 23
10 Ogre United 29 3 6 20 15
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Riga 29 84 30 +54 67
2 Rīgas FS 29 70 21 +49 73
3 Auda 29 47 29 +18 57
4 Tukums 30 43 60 -17 23
5 FK Liepaja 30 41 43 -2 42
6 BFC Daugavpils 30 35 35 0 38
7 FS Jelgava 30 32 48 -16 32
8 Super Nova 28 29 38 -9 35
9 Ogre United 29 29 75 -46 15
10 Grobiņa 30 20 51 -31 25
Virsliga Latvia. Virsliga Predictions