Statistics / Football / Portugal. Liga 3 / SC Covilha vs Amora

SC Covilha vs Amora Statistics & Analysis

SC Covilha SC Covilha
May 01, 2026 - 15:00
1 1.45
1 1.25
xG Accuracy: 82%
Amora Amora
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 SC Covilha Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 1-2 1-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 26, 2026 · 01:40 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1787901

Closing Odds 3.12
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Draw · SC Covilha 1–1 Amora
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE10 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices SC Covilha (1X2) meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on SC Covilha (1X2) by about 4.5 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
SC Covilha (1X2) 41.8 37.3 +4.5
Draw (1X2) 25.7 30.2 -4.5
Amora (1X2) 32.6 32.5 +0.1
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 41.8% on SC Covilha (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 37.3%. The difference — about 4.5 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE10 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE10) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
SC Covilha (1X2) 2.53 2.53 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.12 3.12 0.0
Amora (1X2) 2.9 2.9 0.0

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Back to Statistics
Liga 3 Liga 3 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Guimaraes B 18 8 5 5 29
2 Amarante 18 8 5 5 29
3 Trofense 18 7 7 4 28
4 Varzim 18 7 7 4 28
5 Paredes 18 6 9 3 27
6 SC Braga B 18 6 7 5 25
7 Fafe 18 6 6 6 24
8 AD Marco 09 18 4 7 7 19
9 São João Ver 18 2 8 8 14
10 Sanjoanense 18 2 7 9 13
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Varzim 18 26 17 +9 28
2 Trofense 18 23 15 +8 28
3 Fafe 18 23 21 +2 24
4 Paredes 18 22 12 +10 27
5 Guimaraes B 18 20 16 +4 29
6 Sanjoanense 18 20 32 -12 13
7 Amarante 18 19 17 +2 29
8 SC Braga B 18 16 17 -1 25
9 AD Marco 09 18 15 22 -7 19
10 São João Ver 18 11 26 -15 14