Statistics / Football / Portugal. Liga 3 / Varzim vs CF Os Belenenses

Varzim vs CF Os Belenenses Statistics & Analysis

Varzim Varzim
May 10, 2026 - 18:30
1 1.45
2 1.25
xG Accuracy: 72%
CF Os Belenenses CF Os Belenenses
Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Varzim CF Os Belenenses ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 0-0 1-2 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 24, 2026 · 22:23 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1651242

Closing Odds 3.57
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result CF Os Belenenses win · Varzim 1–2 CF Os Belenenses
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

The largest late implied swing on this feed was about 3.43 percentage points on CF Os Belenenses (1X2) between PRE30 and PRE1.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Varzim (1X2) by about 16.1 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Varzim (1X2) 41.8 25.7 +16.1
Draw (1X2) 25.7 30.1 -4.4
CF Os Belenenses (1X2) 32.6 44.3 -11.7
Over 2.5 goals 50.6 44.1 +6.5
Under 2.5 goals 49.4 55.9 -6.5
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 41.8% on Varzim (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 25.7%. The difference — about 16.1 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Varzim (1X2) 3.87 3.57 +2.0
Draw (1X2) 3.2 3.05 +1.4
CF Os Belenenses (1X2) 1.92 2.07 -3.4
Over 2.5 goals 2.07 2.13 -1.1
Under 2.5 goals 1.71 1.68 +1.1

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Liga 3
  • Fixture: Varzim vs CF Os Belenenses
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-10 14:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): Varzim 1.45 — CF Os Belenenses 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Over 2.5 goals
  • Model: 50.6% · Implied: 44.7% · Probability edge: +5.9 pts · Est. EV: +8.8%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.9% · No 45.1%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.8%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

Get Premium Predictions for Varzim & CF Os Belenenses!

Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.

Subscribe Now
Back to Statistics
Liga 3 Liga 3 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Guimaraes B 18 8 5 5 29
2 Amarante 18 8 5 5 29
3 Trofense 18 7 7 4 28
4 Varzim 18 7 7 4 28
5 Paredes 18 6 9 3 27
6 SC Braga B 18 6 7 5 25
7 Fafe 18 6 6 6 24
8 AD Marco 09 18 4 7 7 19
9 São João Ver 18 2 8 8 14
10 Sanjoanense 18 2 7 9 13
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Varzim 18 26 17 +9 28
2 Trofense 18 23 15 +8 28
3 Fafe 18 23 21 +2 24
4 Paredes 18 22 12 +10 27
5 Guimaraes B 18 20 16 +4 29
6 Sanjoanense 18 20 32 -12 13
7 Amarante 18 19 17 +2 29
8 SC Braga B 18 16 17 -1 25
9 AD Marco 09 18 15 22 -7 19
10 São João Ver 18 11 26 -15 14