Trofense vs Guimaraes B Statistics & Analysis

Trofense

May 09, 2026 - 14:00

1 1.45

1 1.25

xG Accuracy: 82%

Guimaraes B

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the model’s highlighted side (or lean) to what happened at full time.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Trofense Draw ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 0-0 1-1 ✖ Incorrect

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: Liga 3
Fixture: Trofense vs Guimaraes B
Kickoff: 2026-05-10 14:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
xG (showing): Trofense 1.45 — Guimaraes B 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Under 2.5 goals
Model: 67.7% · Implied: 51.4% · Probability edge: +16.3 pts · Est. EV: +30.0%
BTTS (model): Yes 43.4% · No 56.6%
Correct score (top bin): 0-0 (13.5%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Best Bet + Reason

Primary pick from the decision engine: Under 2.5 goals.

If 1X2 looks tight, the engine may still find clearer structure in totals or BTTS — that is intentional.

Edges shrink quickly if prices move; always re-check the number on your book.

FAQ

Safer market than correct score?

Markets with more liquidity and smoother prices (often 1X2 or O/U 2.5 from many books) are usually easier to reason about than long-tail correct-score prices; still read EV on each leg.

Who has the edge in the match-winner market?

Use the 1X2 model percentages in the summary and the 1X2 market card: the side with the highest model % is the model lean, but check EV — a lean can still be -EV after prices.

How should I read EV versus a probability gap?

Probability edge = model probability minus implied probability (reported here in percentage points). EV ≈ model probability × best tracked decimal odds − 1, shown as return per unit stake. They are related but not interchangeable labels.

What changes first if odds move?

Implied probabilities and EV move immediately with price; model probabilities in this snapshot do not update until the pipeline is re-run. Refresh after material line moves.

Risk Factors

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Methodology

Inputs: Same structured facts bundle as the public prediction page (xG / Poisson snapshot, market EV where available, decision engine v2).
Compliance: Educational framing only; not personalised advice.

Last Updated

May 17, 2026 (UTC)

How to use this

Focus on the Primary line when you want one actionable idea.
Do not parlay many thin-edge picks together; edges do not add reliably.
Treat longshots as optional, high-stake-sizing plays only.

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Liga 3 — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Guimaraes B	18	8	5	5	29
2	Amarante	18	8	5	5	29
3	Trofense	18	7	7	4	28
4	Varzim	18	7	7	4	28
5	Paredes	18	6	9	3	27
6	SC Braga B	18	6	7	5	25
7	Fafe	18	6	6	6	24
8	AD Marco 09	18	4	7	7	19
9	São João Ver	18	2	8	8	14
10	Sanjoanense	18	2	7	9	13

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Varzim	18	26	17	+9	28
2	Trofense	18	23	15	+8	28
3	Fafe	18	23	21	+2	24
4	Paredes	18	22	12	+10	27
5	Guimaraes B	18	20	16	+4	29
6	Sanjoanense	18	20	32	-12	13
7	Amarante	18	19	17	+2	29
8	SC Braga B	18	16	17	-1	25
9	AD Marco 09	18	15	22	-7	19
10	São João Ver	18	11	26	-15	14