Statistics / Football / Portugal. Liga 3 / Guimaraes B vs Mafra

Guimaraes B vs Mafra Statistics & Analysis

Guimaraes B Guimaraes B
May 03, 2026 - 10:00
0 1.45
2 1.25
xG Accuracy: 55%
Mafra Mafra
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Guimaraes B Mafra ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 1-2 0-2 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 24, 2026 · 04:13 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1549243

Closing Odds 3.25
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Mafra win · Guimaraes B 0–2 Mafra
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE10 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Mafra (1X2) meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Mafra (1X2) by about 3.9 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Guimaraes B (1X2) 41.8 42.0 -0.2
Draw (1X2) 25.7 29.3 -3.6
Mafra (1X2) 32.6 28.7 +3.9
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 32.6% on Mafra (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 28.7%. The difference — about 3.9 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE10 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE10) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Guimaraes B (1X2) 2.22 2.22 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.18 3.18 0.0
Mafra (1X2) 3.25 3.25 0.0

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Back to Statistics
Liga 3 Liga 3 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Guimaraes B 18 8 5 5 29
2 Amarante 18 8 5 5 29
3 Trofense 18 7 7 4 28
4 Varzim 18 7 7 4 28
5 Paredes 18 6 9 3 27
6 SC Braga B 18 6 7 5 25
7 Fafe 18 6 6 6 24
8 AD Marco 09 18 4 7 7 19
9 São João Ver 18 2 8 8 14
10 Sanjoanense 18 2 7 9 13
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Varzim 18 26 17 +9 28
2 Trofense 18 23 15 +8 28
3 Fafe 18 23 21 +2 24
4 Paredes 18 22 12 +10 27
5 Guimaraes B 18 20 16 +4 29
6 Sanjoanense 18 20 32 -12 13
7 Amarante 18 19 17 +2 29
8 SC Braga B 18 16 17 -1 25
9 AD Marco 09 18 15 22 -7 19
10 São João Ver 18 11 26 -15 14