Statistics / Football / Iceland. 1. Deild / Ægir vs Völsungur

Ægir vs Völsungur Statistics & Analysis

Ægir Ægir
Aug 13, 2026 - 18:00
0 1.36
2 1.24
xG Accuracy: 56%
Völsungur Völsungur
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Ægir Völsungur ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-2 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 07, 2026 · 01:49 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3153011

Closing Odds 2.37
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Völsungur win · Ægir 0–2 Völsungur
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2) meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Draw (1X2) by about 6.8 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Ægir (1X2) 38.0 38.0 +0.0
Draw (1X2) 29.6 22.9 +6.8
Völsungur (1X2) 32.4 39.1 -6.8
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 29.6% on Draw (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 22.9%. The difference — about 6.8 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Ægir (1X2) 2.44 2.44 0.0
Draw (1X2) 4.06 4.06 0.0
Völsungur (1X2) 2.37 2.37 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: 1. Deild
  • Fixture: Ægir vs Völsungur
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-13 18:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 38.0% · Draw 29.6% · Away 32.4%
  • xG (showing): Ægir 1.36 — Völsungur 1.24 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 30.7% · Probability edge: +21.1 pts · Est. EV: +70.9%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
1. Deild 1. Deild — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Afturelding 22 14 3 5 45
2 Throttur Reykjavik 22 13 4 5 43
3 Fylkir 22 13 1 8 40
4 HK Kopavogur 22 12 2 8 38
5 Njardvik 22 12 2 8 38
6 Leiknir R. 22 8 4 10 28
7 IR Reykjavik 22 8 4 10 28
8 Grotta 22 8 3 11 27
9 Vestri 22 8 3 11 27
10 Völsungur 22 7 5 10 26
11 Grindavik 22 5 10 7 25
12 Ægir 22 2 3 17 9
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Afturelding 22 65 33 +32 45
2 HK Kopavogur 22 52 40 +12 38
3 Throttur Reykjavik 22 50 25 +25 43
4 Fylkir 22 49 36 +13 40
5 IR Reykjavik 22 40 46 -6 28
6 Njardvik 22 38 29 +9 38
7 Grotta 22 36 43 -7 27
8 Leiknir R. 22 34 33 +1 28
9 Völsungur 22 32 44 -12 26
10 Vestri 22 30 43 -13 27
11 Grindavik 22 25 35 -10 25
12 Ægir 22 25 69 -44 9