Statistics / Football / Estonia. Meistriliiga / Laagri vs Nõmme United

Laagri vs Nõmme United Statistics & Analysis

Laagri Laagri
Oct 13, 2026 - 15:00
2 1.49
0 1.11
xG Accuracy: 64%
Nõmme United Nõmme United
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Laagri Laagri ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 2-0, 0-1 2-0 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 07, 2026 · 02:03 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-13659263

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Laagri win · Laagri 2–0 Nõmme United
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Meistriliiga
  • Fixture: Laagri vs Nõmme United
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-13 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 44.3% · Draw 29.0% · Away 26.7%
  • xG (showing): Laagri 1.49 — Nõmme United 1.11 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 32.4% · Probability edge: +19.4 pts · Est. EV: +70.9%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 53.5% · No 46.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.3%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Selective Lean - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 17, 2026 (UTC)

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Meistriliiga Meistriliiga — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 FC Levadia Tallinn 29 22 6 1 72
2 Flora Tallinn 29 18 1 10 55
3 Paide 29 15 6 8 51
4 Kalju Nomme 29 15 5 9 50
5 Tammeka 29 14 2 13 44
6 Laagri 29 11 2 16 35
7 Vaprus 29 10 4 15 34
8 Kuressaare 29 8 5 16 29
9 Nõmme United 29 9 1 19 28
10 Trans Narva 29 5 4 20 19
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 FC Levadia Tallinn 29 81 21 +60 72
2 Flora Tallinn 29 59 39 +20 55
3 Kalju Nomme 29 52 27 +25 50
4 Paide 29 48 36 +12 51
5 Nõmme United 29 47 68 -21 28
6 Laagri 29 40 47 -7 35
7 Vaprus 29 39 57 -18 34
8 Tammeka 29 37 47 -10 44
9 Kuressaare 29 31 49 -18 29
10 Trans Narva 29 22 65 -43 19
Meistriliiga Estonia. Meistriliiga Predictions