Statistics / Football / Estonia. Meistriliiga / Nõmme United vs Paide

Nõmme United vs Paide Statistics & Analysis

Nõmme United Nõmme United
Sep 19, 2026 - 14:00
1 1.03
3 1.57
xG Accuracy: 67%
Paide Paide
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Paide Paide ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 0-2, 1-0 1-3 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 14, 2026 · 01:55 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8679674

Closing Odds 1.64
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Paide win · Nõmme United 1–3 Paide
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE5 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Nõmme United (1X2), Draw (1X2) meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Draw (1X2) by about 7.2 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Nõmme United (1X2) 23.3 21.5 +1.8
Draw (1X2) 28.4 21.2 +7.2
Paide (1X2) 48.3 57.3 -9.0
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 28.4% on Draw (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 21.2%. The difference — about 7.2 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE5 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE5) Implied Δ (pp)
Nõmme United (1X2) 4.31 4.37 -0.0
Draw (1X2) 4.38 4.44 -0.0
Paide (1X2) 1.62 1.64 +0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Meistriliiga
  • Fixture: Nõmme United vs Paide
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-19 14:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 23.3% · Draw 28.4% · Away 48.3%
  • xG (showing): Nõmme United 1.03 — Paide 1.57 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 31.7% · Probability edge: +20.1 pts · Est. EV: +65.8%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 52.5% · No 47.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.0%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Meistriliiga Meistriliiga — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 FC Levadia Tallinn 29 22 6 1 72
2 Flora Tallinn 29 18 1 10 55
3 Paide 29 15 6 8 51
4 Kalju Nomme 29 15 5 9 50
5 Tammeka 29 14 2 13 44
6 Laagri 29 11 2 16 35
7 Vaprus 29 10 4 15 34
8 Kuressaare 29 8 5 16 29
9 Nõmme United 29 9 1 19 28
10 Trans Narva 29 5 4 20 19
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 FC Levadia Tallinn 29 81 21 +60 72
2 Flora Tallinn 29 59 39 +20 55
3 Kalju Nomme 29 52 27 +25 50
4 Paide 29 48 36 +12 51
5 Nõmme United 29 47 68 -21 28
6 Laagri 29 40 47 -7 35
7 Vaprus 29 39 57 -18 34
8 Tammeka 29 37 47 -10 44
9 Kuressaare 29 31 49 -18 29
10 Trans Narva 29 22 65 -43 19