Kalju Nomme vs Tammeka Statistics & Analysis

Kalju Nomme

Jun 17, 2026 - 16:00

1 1.51

2 1.09

xG Accuracy: 68%

Tammeka

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Kalju Nomme Tammeka ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 2-0, 0-1 1-2 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 24, 2026 · 04:19 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1550111

Closing Odds 1.43

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Tammeka win · Kalju Nomme 1–2 Tammeka

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Tammeka (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 17.2 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Kalju Nomme (1X2)	45.3	65.0	-19.7
Draw (1X2)	28.9	19.5	+9.4
Tammeka (1X2)	25.8	15.5	+10.3
Over 2.5 goals	48.2	65.4	-17.2
Under 2.5 goals	51.8	34.6	+17.2

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 51.8% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 34.6%. The difference — about 17.2 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)
Kalju Nomme (1X2)	1.43	1.43
Draw (1X2)	4.76	4.76
Tammeka (1X2)	6.0	6.0
Over 2.5 goals	1.43	1.43
Under 2.5 goals	2.7	2.7

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: Meistriliiga
Fixture: Kalju Nomme vs Tammeka
Kickoff: 2026-06-17 16:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 45.3% · Draw 28.9% · Away 25.8%
xG (showing): Kalju Nomme 1.51 — Tammeka 1.09 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS No (Yes 53.3% · No 46.7%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No
BTTS (model): Yes 53.3% · No 46.7%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.2%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: AI Value Alert - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 16, 2026 (UTC)

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Meistriliiga — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	FC Levadia Tallinn	27	21	5	1	68
2	Flora Tallinn	28	17	1	10	52
3	Kalju Nomme	28	14	5	9	47
4	Paide	27	13	6	8	45
5	Tammeka	27	14	2	11	44
6	Laagri	28	11	1	16	34
7	Vaprus	27	10	4	13	34
8	Nõmme United	28	9	1	18	28
9	Kuressaare	28	8	4	16	28
10	Trans Narva	28	5	3	20	18

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	FC Levadia Tallinn	27	74	20	+54	68
2	Flora Tallinn	28	56	37	+19	52
3	Kalju Nomme	28	49	26	+23	47
4	Nõmme United	28	46	65	-19	28
5	Paide	27	43	35	+8	45
6	Laagri	28	40	47	-7	34
7	Vaprus	27	37	52	-15	34
8	Tammeka	27	36	38	-2	44
9	Kuressaare	28	31	49	-18	28
10	Trans Narva	28	21	64	-43	18