Statistics / Football / USA. MLS Next Pro / Los Angeles II vs Tacoma Defiance

Los Angeles II vs Tacoma Defiance Statistics & Analysis

Los Angeles II Los Angeles II
Aug 17, 2026 - 02:00
4 1.28
3 1.32
xG Accuracy: 30%
Tacoma Defiance Tacoma Defiance
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (7 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Tacoma Defiance Los Angeles II ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 4-3 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 11, 2026 · 02:03 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3616366

Closing Odds 1.88
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Los Angeles II win · Los Angeles II 4–3 Tacoma Defiance
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Tacoma Defiance (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 18.1 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Los Angeles II (1X2) 34.2 49.3 -15.0
Draw (1X2) 29.7 23.6 +6.0
Tacoma Defiance (1X2) 36.1 27.1 +9.0
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 66.3 -18.1
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 33.6 +18.1
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 51.8% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 33.6%. The difference — about 18.1 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Los Angeles II (1X2) 1.88 1.88 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.92 3.92 0.0
Tacoma Defiance (1X2) 3.42 3.42 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.41 1.41 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 2.78 2.78 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: MLS Next Pro
  • Fixture: Los Angeles II vs Tacoma Defiance
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-17 02:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 34.2% · Draw 29.7% · Away 36.1%
  • xG (showing): Los Angeles II 1.28 — Tacoma Defiance 1.32 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 34.2% · Probability edge: +17.6 pts · Est. EV: +44.0%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 16, 2026 (UTC)

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MLS Next Pro MLS Next Pro — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 New York RB II 27 15 0 12 46
1 Crown Legacy 26 19 0 7 54
1 Austin II 26 19 0 7 59
2 Columbus Crew II 27 16 0 11 46
2 Chattanooga 26 17 0 9 50
2 Portland Timbers II 26 18 0 8 54
3 New York City II 27 15 0 12 45
3 Atlanta United II 26 14 0 12 45
3 Houston Dynamo FC II 26 18 0 8 51
4 New England II 27 15 0 12 45
4 LA Galaxy II 26 17 0 9 50
5 Connecticut FC 27 15 0 12 43
5 St. Louis City II 26 14 0 12 43
6 Bethlehem Steel 27 14 0 13 42
6 Los Angeles II 26 13 0 13 42
7 Toronto II 27 13 0 14 39
7 Tacoma Defiance 26 13 0 13 39
8 FC Cincinnati II 27 7 0 20 20
8 North Texas 26 13 0 13 38
9 Orlando City II 26 14 0 12 41
9 Minnesota United II 25 12 0 13 37
10 San Jose Earthquakes II 26 12 0 14 36
11 Real Monarchs 25 11 0 14 29
12 Chicago Fire II 26 13 0 13 39
12 Whitecaps II 26 10 0 16 27
13 Huntsville City 26 12 0 14 38
13 Swope Park Rangers 26 6 0 20 20
14 Carolina Core 26 9 0 17 28
14 Colorado Rapids II 26 5 0 21 18
16 Fort Lauderdale CF 26 4 0 22 15
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Crown Legacy 26 63 36 +27 54
2 Atlanta United II 26 57 40 +17 45
3 New York RB II 27 57 46 +11 46
4 LA Galaxy II 26 54 34 +20 50
5 Connecticut FC 27 52 50 +2 43
6 Austin II 26 51 21 +30 59
7 Houston Dynamo FC II 26 51 30 +21 51
8 Chattanooga 26 51 38 +13 50
9 Orlando City II 26 50 51 -1 41
10 New York City II 27 49 43 +6 45
11 Chicago Fire II 26 49 45 +4 39
12 Columbus Crew II 27 48 42 +6 46
13 Toronto II 27 47 53 -6 39
14 San Jose Earthquakes II 26 45 36 +9 36
15 New England II 27 44 41 +3 45
16 Los Angeles II 26 43 44 -1 42
17 Huntsville City 26 43 45 -2 38
18 St. Louis City II 26 41 37 +4 43
19 North Texas 26 41 39 +2 38
20 Tacoma Defiance 26 39 40 -1 39
21 Whitecaps II 26 38 55 -17 27
22 Carolina Core 26 37 50 -13 28
23 Bethlehem Steel 27 36 39 -3 42
24 Real Monarchs 25 36 50 -14 29
25 Portland Timbers II 26 35 27 +8 54
26 Minnesota United II 25 35 36 -1 37
27 Swope Park Rangers 26 32 68 -36 20
28 FC Cincinnati II 27 31 60 -29 20
29 Fort Lauderdale CF 26 27 63 -36 15
30 Colorado Rapids II 26 26 50 -24 18
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