Deportes Copiapo vs San Luis Statistics & Analysis

Deportes Copiapo

Aug 09, 2026 - 16:30

1 1.43

1 1.17

xG Accuracy: 85%

San Luis

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Deportes Copiapo Draw ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 1-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 04, 2026 · 01:29 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2966838

Closing Odds 2.89

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Draw · Deportes Copiapo 1–1 San Luis

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Deportes Copiapo (1X2)	41.4	40.1	+1.2
Draw (1X2)	29.4	28.2	+1.2
San Luis (1X2)	29.3	31.7	-2.4
Over 2.5 goals	48.2	49.3	-1.1
Under 2.5 goals	51.8	50.7	+1.1

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)
Deportes Copiapo (1X2)	2.28	2.28
Draw (1X2)	3.25	3.25
San Luis (1X2)	2.89	2.89
Over 2.5 goals	1.92	1.92
Under 2.5 goals	1.87	1.87

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: Primera B
Fixture: Deportes Copiapo vs San Luis
Kickoff: 2026-08-09 16:30:00
1X2 (model): Home 41.4% · Draw 29.4% · Away 29.3%
xG (showing): Deportes Copiapo 1.43 — San Luis 1.17 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.1% · No 45.9%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.1% · No 45.9%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Primera B — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Santiago Wanderers	24	12	8	4	44
2	Cobreloa	24	11	9	4	42
3	San Luis	24	11	8	5	41
4	Magallanes	25	11	7	7	40
5	Antofagasta	25	10	8	7	38
6	Recoleta	25	10	8	7	38
7	San Marcos de Arica	25	9	9	7	36
8	Union Espanola	25	10	6	9	36
9	D. Puerto Montt	25	10	4	11	34
10	Deportes Temuco	25	8	8	9	32
11	Deportes Copiapo	24	8	7	9	31
12	Deportes Iquique	25	6	10	9	28
13	Curico Unido	25	6	9	10	27
14	Deportes Santa Cruz	25	4	10	11	22
15	Union San Felipe	23	5	7	11	22
16	Rangers de Talca	25	4	6	15	18

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Antofagasta	25	42	26	+16	38
2	Cobreloa	24	42	27	+15	42
3	Magallanes	25	41	38	+3	40
4	Santiago Wanderers	24	40	25	+15	44
5	Deportes Temuco	25	40	35	+5	32
6	San Luis	24	38	29	+9	41
7	Recoleta	25	36	33	+3	38
8	Deportes Iquique	25	33	30	+3	28
9	Deportes Copiapo	24	33	38	-5	31
10	Union Espanola	25	32	32	0	36
11	San Marcos de Arica	25	31	23	+8	36
12	D. Puerto Montt	25	26	31	-5	34
13	Deportes Santa Cruz	25	26	38	-12	22
14	Rangers de Talca	25	23	40	-17	18
15	Curico Unido	25	22	38	-16	27
16	Union San Felipe	23	15	37	-22	22