Statistics / Football / Chile. Primera B / Magallanes vs Curico Unido

Magallanes vs Curico Unido Statistics & Analysis

Magallanes Magallanes
Oct 03, 2026 - 15:30
1 1.38
0 1.22
xG Accuracy: 64%
Curico Unido Curico Unido
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Magallanes Magallanes ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-0 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 25, 2026 · 17:31 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1741341

Closing Odds 1.78
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Magallanes win · Magallanes 1–0 Curico Unido
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Curico Unido (1X2) meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Curico Unido (1X2) by about 8.9 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Magallanes (1X2) 39.0 51.4 -12.4
Draw (1X2) 29.5 26.1 +3.5
Curico Unido (1X2) 31.5 22.6 +8.9
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 48.9 -0.7
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 51.1 +0.7
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 31.5% on Curico Unido (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 22.6%. The difference — about 8.9 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Magallanes (1X2) 1.78 1.78 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.51 3.51 0.0
Curico Unido (1X2) 4.05 4.05 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.93 1.93 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 1.85 1.85 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Primera B
  • Fixture: Magallanes vs Curico Unido
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-03 15:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 39.0% · Draw 29.5% · Away 31.5%
  • xG (showing): Magallanes 1.38 — Curico Unido 1.22 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None (actionable) — best tracked EV is about +1.7%, still below the +2.0% minimum for a headline / default stake (no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 03, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Primera B Primera B — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Cobreloa 25 12 9 4 45
2 Santiago Wanderers 25 12 8 5 44
3 San Luis 25 12 8 5 44
4 Magallanes 25 11 7 7 40
5 Antofagasta 25 10 8 7 38
6 Recoleta 25 10 8 7 38
7 San Marcos de Arica 25 9 9 7 36
8 Union Espanola 25 10 6 9 36
9 Deportes Copiapo 25 9 7 9 34
10 D. Puerto Montt 25 10 4 11 34
11 Deportes Temuco 25 8 8 9 32
12 Deportes Iquique 25 6 10 9 28
13 Curico Unido 25 6 9 10 27
14 Deportes Santa Cruz 25 4 10 11 22
15 Union San Felipe 25 5 7 13 22
16 Rangers de Talca 25 4 6 15 18
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Cobreloa 25 43 27 +16 45
2 Antofagasta 25 42 26 +16 38
3 Magallanes 25 41 38 +3 40
4 Santiago Wanderers 25 40 26 +14 44
5 Deportes Temuco 25 40 35 +5 32
6 San Luis 25 39 29 +10 44
7 Deportes Copiapo 25 37 39 -2 34
8 Recoleta 25 36 33 +3 38
9 Deportes Iquique 25 33 30 +3 28
10 Union Espanola 25 32 32 0 36
11 San Marcos de Arica 25 31 23 +8 36
12 D. Puerto Montt 25 26 31 -5 34
13 Deportes Santa Cruz 25 26 38 -12 22
14 Rangers de Talca 25 23 40 -17 18
15 Curico Unido 25 22 38 -16 27
16 Union San Felipe 25 16 42 -26 22
Primera B Chile. Primera B Predictions