Statistics / Football / Chile. Primera B / Deportes Santa Cruz vs San Marcos de Arica

Deportes Santa Cruz vs San Marcos de Arica Statistics & Analysis

Deportes Santa Cruz Deportes Santa Cruz
Oct 03, 2026 - 23:00
1 1.26
2 1.34
xG Accuracy: 78%
San Marcos de Arica San Marcos de Arica
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 San Marcos de Arica San Marcos de Arica ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-2 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 18:54 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1487493

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result San Marcos de Arica win · Deportes Santa Cruz 1–2 San Marcos de Arica
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade A

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Primera B
  • Fixture: Deportes Santa Cruz vs San Marcos de Arica
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-03 23:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 33.4% · Draw 29.6% · Away 37.0%
  • xG (showing): Deportes Santa Cruz 1.26 — San Marcos de Arica 1.34 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Over 2.5 goals
  • Model: 48.2% · Implied: 41.5% · Probability edge: +6.7 pts · Est. EV: +10.9%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 04, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Primera B Primera B — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Cobreloa 25 12 9 4 45
2 Santiago Wanderers 25 12 8 5 44
3 San Luis 25 12 8 5 44
4 Magallanes 25 11 7 7 40
5 Antofagasta 25 10 8 7 38
6 Recoleta 25 10 8 7 38
7 San Marcos de Arica 25 9 9 7 36
8 Union Espanola 25 10 6 9 36
9 Deportes Copiapo 25 9 7 9 34
10 D. Puerto Montt 25 10 4 11 34
11 Deportes Temuco 25 8 8 9 32
12 Deportes Iquique 25 6 10 9 28
13 Curico Unido 25 6 9 10 27
14 Deportes Santa Cruz 25 4 10 11 22
15 Union San Felipe 25 5 7 13 22
16 Rangers de Talca 25 4 6 15 18
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Cobreloa 25 43 27 +16 45
2 Antofagasta 25 42 26 +16 38
3 Magallanes 25 41 38 +3 40
4 Santiago Wanderers 25 40 26 +14 44
5 Deportes Temuco 25 40 35 +5 32
6 San Luis 25 39 29 +10 44
7 Deportes Copiapo 25 37 39 -2 34
8 Recoleta 25 36 33 +3 38
9 Deportes Iquique 25 33 30 +3 28
10 Union Espanola 25 32 32 0 36
11 San Marcos de Arica 25 31 23 +8 36
12 D. Puerto Montt 25 26 31 -5 34
13 Deportes Santa Cruz 25 26 38 -12 22
14 Rangers de Talca 25 23 40 -17 18
15 Curico Unido 25 22 38 -16 27
16 Union San Felipe 25 16 42 -26 22
Primera B Chile. Primera B Predictions