Statistics / Football / Sweden. Division 2 - Västra Götaland / Torslanda vs Kongahälla

Torslanda vs Kongahälla Statistics & Analysis

Torslanda Torslanda
Oct 02, 2026 - 17:00
2 1.32
0 1.28
xG Accuracy: 58%
Kongahälla Kongahälla
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Torslanda Torslanda ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 26, 2026 · 01:49 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10974548

Closing Odds 1.86
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Torslanda win · Torslanda 2–0 Kongahälla
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade A

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Kongahälla (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 17.9 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Torslanda (1X2) 36.1 47.8 -11.7
Draw (1X2) 29.7 24.4 +5.3
Kongahälla (1X2) 34.2 27.8 +6.4
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 66.1 -17.9
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 33.9 +17.9
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 51.8% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 33.9%. The difference — about 17.9 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Torslanda (1X2) 1.86 1.86 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.64 3.64 0.0
Kongahälla (1X2) 3.19 3.19 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.38 1.38 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 2.69 2.69 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Division 2 - Västra Götaland
  • Fixture: Torslanda vs Kongahälla
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-02 17:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.2%
  • xG (showing): Torslanda 1.32 — Kongahälla 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 33.1% · Probability edge: +18.7 pts · Est. EV: +52.8%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 03, 2026 (UTC)

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Division 2 - Västra Götaland Division 2 - Västra Götaland — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Landvetter IS 24 17 3 4 54
2 Dalstorps 23 12 7 4 43
3 Hestrafor 24 12 5 7 41
4 Jonsered 23 11 6 6 39
5 Lindome 24 11 4 9 37
6 Västra Frölunda 23 10 6 7 36
7 Böljan 23 9 7 7 34
8 Qviding FIF 24 10 4 10 34
9 Onsala 24 8 6 10 30
10 Torslanda 24 7 7 10 28
11 Kongahälla 24 7 6 11 27
12 Åstorp 23 7 5 11 26
13 Galtabacks 24 5 5 14 20
14 Astrio 23 2 3 18 9
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Hestrafor 24 48 39 +9 41
2 Lindome 24 46 40 +6 37
3 Dalstorps 23 44 25 +19 43
4 Västra Frölunda 23 44 38 +6 36
5 Qviding FIF 24 44 44 0 34
6 Landvetter IS 24 42 19 +23 54
7 Jonsered 23 39 37 +2 39
8 Torslanda 24 39 42 -3 28
9 Galtabacks 24 38 46 -8 20
10 Böljan 23 36 31 +5 34
11 Kongahälla 24 35 45 -10 27
12 Onsala 24 33 37 -4 30
13 Åstorp 23 28 38 -10 26
14 Astrio 23 21 56 -35 9
Division 2 - Västra Götaland Sweden. Division 2 - Västra Götaland Predictions