Böljan vs Hestrafor Statistics & Analysis

Böljan

Sep 11, 2026 - 17:30

1 1.34

3 1.26

xG Accuracy: 56%

Hestrafor

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Böljan Hestrafor ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-3 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 05, 2026 · 01:52 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7035980

Closing Odds 2.04

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Hestrafor win · Böljan 1–3 Hestrafor

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2) meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Draw (1X2) by about 5.6 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Böljan (1X2)	37.0	43.3	-6.2
Draw (1X2)	29.6	24.0	+5.6
Hestrafor (1X2)	33.4	32.7	+0.6

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 29.6% on Draw (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 24.0%. The difference — about 5.6 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)
Böljan (1X2)	2.04	2.04
Draw (1X2)	3.68	3.68
Hestrafor (1X2)	2.7	2.7

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: Division 2 - Västra Götaland
Fixture: Böljan vs Hestrafor
Kickoff: 2026-09-11 17:30:00
1X2 (model): Home 37.0% · Draw 29.6% · Away 33.4%
xG (showing): Böljan 1.34 — Hestrafor 1.26 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Under 2.5 goals
Model: 51.8% · Implied: 30.2% · Probability edge: +21.6 pts · Est. EV: +68.3%
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Division 2 - Västra Götaland — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Landvetter IS	23	16	3	4	51
2	Dalstorps	23	12	7	4	43
3	Hestrafor	23	12	5	6	41
4	Jonsered	23	11	6	6	39
5	Lindome	23	10	4	9	34
6	Böljan	23	9	7	7	34
7	Västra Frölunda	22	9	6	7	33
8	Qviding FIF	22	9	4	9	31
9	Onsala	22	7	6	9	27
10	Kongahälla	23	7	6	10	27
11	Åstorp	22	7	5	10	26
12	Torslanda	23	6	7	10	25
13	Galtabacks	23	5	5	13	20
14	Astrio	23	2	3	18	9

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Hestrafor	23	48	38	+10	41
2	Dalstorps	23	44	25	+19	43
3	Lindome	23	42	37	+5	34
4	Västra Frölunda	22	42	38	+4	33
5	Qviding FIF	22	42	42	0	31
6	Landvetter IS	23	41	19	+22	51
7	Jonsered	23	39	37	+2	39
8	Torslanda	23	37	42	-5	25
9	Böljan	23	36	31	+5	34
10	Galtabacks	23	35	42	-7	20
11	Kongahälla	23	35	43	-8	27
12	Onsala	22	31	35	-4	27
13	Åstorp	22	28	36	-8	26
14	Astrio	23	21	56	-35	9