Statistics / Football / Sweden. Division 2 - Västra Götaland / Västra Frölunda vs Onsala

Västra Frölunda vs Onsala Statistics & Analysis

Västra Frölunda Västra Frölunda
Sep 05, 2026 - 11:00
3 1.30
1 1.30
xG Accuracy: 58%
Onsala Onsala
Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Västra Frölunda Västra Frölunda ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 3-1 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 30, 2026 · 01:22 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-6127963

Closing Odds 1.82
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Västra Frölunda win · Västra Frölunda 3–1 Onsala
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Onsala (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 16.6 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Västra Frölunda (1X2) 35.2 48.8 -13.6
Draw (1X2) 29.6 24.2 +5.4
Onsala (1X2) 35.2 27.0 +8.2
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 64.8 -16.6
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 35.2 +16.6
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 51.8% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 35.2%. The difference — about 16.6 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Västra Frölunda (1X2) 1.82 1.82 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.66 3.66 0.0
Onsala (1X2) 3.29 3.29 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.41 1.41 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 2.59 2.59 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Division 2 - Västra Götaland
  • Fixture: Västra Frölunda vs Onsala
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-05 11:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 35.2% · Draw 29.6% · Away 35.2%
  • xG (showing): Västra Frölunda 1.3 — Onsala 1.3 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 34.1% · Probability edge: +17.7 pts · Est. EV: +45.0%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 16, 2026 (UTC)

Get Premium Predictions for Västra Frölunda & Onsala!

Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.

Subscribe Now
Back to Statistics
Division 2 - Västra Götaland Division 2 - Västra Götaland — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Landvetter IS 21 15 2 4 47
2 Hestrafor 21 12 4 5 40
3 Dalstorps 21 11 6 4 39
4 Jonsered 21 11 5 5 38
5 Lindome 21 10 4 7 34
6 Västra Frölunda 21 9 6 6 33
7 Böljan 21 9 5 7 32
8 Qviding FIF 20 8 4 8 28
9 Onsala 21 6 6 9 24
10 Åstorp 20 6 5 9 23
11 Torslanda 21 5 7 9 22
12 Kongahälla 21 5 6 10 21
13 Galtabacks 21 4 5 12 17
14 Astrio 21 1 3 17 6
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Hestrafor 21 46 34 +12 40
2 Dalstorps 21 41 23 +18 39
3 Västra Frölunda 21 41 34 +7 33
4 Lindome 21 39 31 +8 34
5 Qviding FIF 20 39 39 0 28
6 Jonsered 21 38 34 +4 38
7 Landvetter IS 21 37 17 +20 47
8 Böljan 21 34 29 +5 32
9 Torslanda 21 33 38 -5 22
10 Onsala 21 29 35 -6 24
11 Kongahälla 21 29 40 -11 21
12 Galtabacks 21 28 35 -7 17
13 Åstorp 20 25 34 -9 23
14 Astrio 21 15 51 -36 6
Division 2 - Västra Götaland Sweden. Division 2 - Västra Götaland Predictions