Böljan vs Qviding FIF Statistics & Analysis

Böljan

Aug 28, 2026 - 17:00

5 1.24

0 1.36

xG Accuracy: 24%

Qviding FIF

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Qviding FIF Böljan ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 5-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 22, 2026 · 03:01 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-4933441

Closing Odds 3.55

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Böljan win · Böljan 5–0 Qviding FIF

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE5 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2) meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Draw (1X2) by about 4.6 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Böljan (1X2)	32.4	33.6	-1.3
Draw (1X2)	29.6	25.0	+4.6
Qviding FIF (1X2)	38.0	41.3	-3.3

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 29.6% on Draw (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 25.0%. The difference — about 4.6 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE5 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE5)
Böljan (1X2)	2.64	2.64
Draw (1X2)	3.55	3.55
Qviding FIF (1X2)	2.15	2.15

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: Division 2 - Västra Götaland
Fixture: Böljan vs Qviding FIF
Kickoff: 2026-08-28 17:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 32.4% · Draw 29.6% · Away 38.0%
xG (showing): Böljan 1.24 — Qviding FIF 1.36 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Under 2.5 goals
Model: 51.8% · Implied: 29.9% · Probability edge: +21.9 pts · Est. EV: +70.9%
BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Division 2 - Västra Götaland — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Landvetter IS	23	16	3	4	51
2	Dalstorps	23	12	7	4	43
3	Hestrafor	23	12	5	6	41
4	Jonsered	23	11	6	6	39
5	Lindome	23	10	4	9	34
6	Böljan	23	9	7	7	34
7	Västra Frölunda	22	9	6	7	33
8	Qviding FIF	22	9	4	9	31
9	Onsala	22	7	6	9	27
10	Kongahälla	23	7	6	10	27
11	Åstorp	22	7	5	10	26
12	Torslanda	23	6	7	10	25
13	Galtabacks	23	5	5	13	20
14	Astrio	23	2	3	18	9

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Hestrafor	23	48	38	+10	41
2	Dalstorps	23	44	25	+19	43
3	Lindome	23	42	37	+5	34
4	Västra Frölunda	22	42	38	+4	33
5	Qviding FIF	22	42	42	0	31
6	Landvetter IS	23	41	19	+22	51
7	Jonsered	23	39	37	+2	39
8	Torslanda	23	37	42	-5	25
9	Böljan	23	36	31	+5	34
10	Galtabacks	23	35	42	-7	20
11	Kongahälla	23	35	43	-8	27
12	Onsala	22	31	35	-4	27
13	Åstorp	22	28	36	-8	26
14	Astrio	23	21	56	-35	9