Statistics / Football / Sweden. Division 2 - Västra Götaland / Onsala vs Böljan

Onsala vs Böljan Statistics & Analysis

Onsala Onsala
Aug 08, 2026 - 11:00
3 1.38
0 1.22
xG Accuracy: 46%
Böljan Böljan
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Onsala Onsala ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 3-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 02, 2026 · 01:15 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2811360

Closing Odds 1.67
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Onsala win · Onsala 3–0 Böljan
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Böljan (1X2), Under 2.5 goals, BTTS No meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 12.7 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Onsala (1X2) 39.0 53.2 -14.2
Draw (1X2) 29.5 22.8 +6.8
Böljan (1X2) 31.5 24.0 +7.5
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 60.9 -12.7
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 39.1 +12.7
BTTS Yes 54.4 60.9 -6.5
BTTS No 45.6 39.1 +6.5
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 51.8% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 39.1%. The difference — about 12.7 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Bet365

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Onsala (1X2) 1.67 1.67 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.9 3.9 0.0
Böljan (1X2) 3.7 3.7 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.53 1.53 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 2.38 2.38 0.0
BTTS Yes 1.53 1.53 0.0
BTTS No 2.38 2.38 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Division 2 - Västra Götaland
  • Fixture: Onsala vs Böljan
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-08 11:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 39.0% · Draw 29.5% · Away 31.5%
  • xG (showing): Onsala 1.38 — Böljan 1.22 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 34.3% · Probability edge: +17.5 pts · Est. EV: +49.2%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Selective Lean - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Division 2 - Västra Götaland Division 2 - Västra Götaland — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Landvetter IS 23 16 3 4 51
2 Dalstorps 23 12 7 4 43
3 Hestrafor 23 12 5 6 41
4 Jonsered 23 11 6 6 39
5 Lindome 23 10 4 9 34
6 Böljan 23 9 7 7 34
7 Västra Frölunda 22 9 6 7 33
8 Qviding FIF 22 9 4 9 31
9 Onsala 22 7 6 9 27
10 Kongahälla 23 7 6 10 27
11 Åstorp 22 7 5 10 26
12 Torslanda 23 6 7 10 25
13 Galtabacks 23 5 5 13 20
14 Astrio 23 2 3 18 9
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Hestrafor 23 48 38 +10 41
2 Dalstorps 23 44 25 +19 43
3 Lindome 23 42 37 +5 34
4 Västra Frölunda 22 42 38 +4 33
5 Qviding FIF 22 42 42 0 31
6 Landvetter IS 23 41 19 +22 51
7 Jonsered 23 39 37 +2 39
8 Torslanda 23 37 42 -5 25
9 Böljan 23 36 31 +5 34
10 Galtabacks 23 35 42 -7 20
11 Kongahälla 23 35 43 -8 27
12 Onsala 22 31 35 -4 27
13 Åstorp 22 28 36 -8 26
14 Astrio 23 21 56 -35 9
Division 2 - Västra Götaland Sweden. Division 2 - Västra Götaland Predictions