Statistics / Football / Sweden. Division 2 - Södra Svealand / Rågsved vs Smedby

Rågsved vs Smedby Statistics & Analysis

Rågsved Rågsved
Oct 10, 2026 - 14:00
4 1.37
3 1.23
xG Accuracy: 30%
Smedby Smedby
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (7 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Rågsved Rågsved ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 4-3 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 05, 2026 · 02:40 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-13221874

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Rågsved win · Rågsved 4–3 Smedby
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Division 2 - Södra Svealand
  • Fixture: Rågsved vs Smedby
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-10 14:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 38.5% · Draw 29.6% · Away 31.9%
  • xG (showing): Rågsved 1.37 — Smedby 1.23 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 37.4% · Probability edge: +14.4 pts · Est. EV: +29.5%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Selective Lean - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 17, 2026 (UTC)

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Division 2 - Södra Svealand Division 2 - Södra Svealand — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Farsta 25 15 4 6 49
2 Sleipner 25 14 6 5 48
3 Nyköping 25 14 4 7 46
4 Forward 25 13 5 7 44
5 Haninge 25 13 4 8 43
6 Rågsved 25 12 6 7 42
7 Smedby 25 10 6 9 36
8 Fittja 25 10 3 12 33
9 Örebro Syrianska 25 9 4 12 31
10 Karlslund 25 8 7 10 31
11 Nacka Iliria 25 8 3 14 27
12 Syrianska FC 25 7 5 13 26
13 Lindo FF 25 6 2 17 20
14 Eker Örebro 25 5 3 17 18
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Haninge 25 62 50 +12 43
2 Farsta 25 51 27 +24 49
3 Sleipner 25 51 36 +15 48
4 Rågsved 25 49 40 +9 42
5 Forward 25 46 31 +15 44
6 Smedby 25 44 37 +7 36
7 Nyköping 25 43 24 +19 46
8 Syrianska FC 25 39 54 -15 26
9 Karlslund 25 38 42 -4 31
10 Fittja 25 37 40 -3 33
11 Lindo FF 25 33 52 -19 20
12 Nacka Iliria 25 31 49 -18 27
13 Eker Örebro 25 31 72 -41 18
14 Örebro Syrianska 25 29 30 -1 31
Division 2 - Södra Svealand Sweden. Division 2 - Södra Svealand Predictions