Statistics / Football / Sweden. Division 2 - Södra Svealand / Örebro Syrianska vs Forward

Örebro Syrianska vs Forward Statistics & Analysis

Örebro Syrianska Örebro Syrianska
Aug 08, 2026 - 11:00
1 1.34
1 1.26
xG Accuracy: 85%
Forward Forward
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Örebro Syrianska Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 02, 2026 · 01:15 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2811259

Closing Odds 3.5
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Draw · Örebro Syrianska 1–1 Forward
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Under 2.5 goals, BTTS No meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 9.7 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Örebro Syrianska (1X2) 37.0 39.2 -2.2
Draw (1X2) 29.6 25.7 +3.9
Forward (1X2) 33.4 35.1 -1.8
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 57.9 -9.7
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 42.1 +9.7
BTTS Yes 54.5 61.1 -6.6
BTTS No 45.5 38.9 +6.6
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 51.8% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 42.1%. The difference — about 9.7 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Marathonbet

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Örebro Syrianska (1X2) 2.29 2.29 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.5 3.5 0.0
Forward (1X2) 2.56 2.56 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.59 1.59 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 2.19 2.19 0.0
BTTS Yes 1.49 1.49 0.0
BTTS No 2.34 2.34 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Division 2 - Södra Svealand
  • Fixture: Örebro Syrianska vs Forward
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-08 11:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 37.0% · Draw 29.6% · Away 33.4%
  • xG (showing): Örebro Syrianska 1.34 — Forward 1.26 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 41.8% · Probability edge: +10.0 pts · Est. EV: +19.1%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 16, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Division 2 - Södra Svealand Division 2 - Södra Svealand — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Sleipner 21 13 4 4 43
2 Farsta 21 13 3 5 42
3 Haninge 20 11 3 6 36
4 Forward 20 11 3 6 36
5 Nyköping 20 11 3 6 36
6 Smedby 21 10 5 6 35
7 Rågsved 21 10 5 6 35
8 Fittja 20 9 3 8 30
9 Karlslund 21 6 6 9 24
10 Örebro Syrianska 21 7 2 12 23
11 Nacka Iliria 21 5 3 13 18
12 Lindo FF 21 5 2 14 17
13 Syrianska FC 20 4 5 11 17
14 Eker Örebro 20 4 3 13 15
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Haninge 20 49 36 +13 36
2 Farsta 21 47 22 +25 42
3 Sleipner 21 47 32 +15 43
4 Rågsved 21 40 33 +7 35
5 Smedby 21 39 29 +10 35
6 Forward 20 38 25 +13 36
7 Nyköping 20 34 21 +13 36
8 Fittja 20 33 32 +1 30
9 Karlslund 21 28 35 -7 24
10 Syrianska FC 20 28 48 -20 17
11 Lindo FF 21 27 41 -14 17
12 Örebro Syrianska 21 22 25 -3 23
13 Nacka Iliria 21 22 40 -18 18
14 Eker Örebro 20 22 57 -35 15
Division 2 - Södra Svealand Sweden. Division 2 - Södra Svealand Predictions