Statistics / Football / Sweden. Division 2 - Södra Svealand / Lindo FF vs Nacka Iliria

Lindo FF vs Nacka Iliria Statistics & Analysis

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Lindo FF
Jun 14, 2026 - 13:00
4 1.32
0 1.28
xG Accuracy: 34%
Nacka Iliria Nacka Iliria
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Lindo FF Lindo FF ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 4-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 26, 2026 · 00:41 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1780029

Closing Odds 1.96
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Lindo FF win · Lindo FF 4–0 Nacka Iliria
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Nacka Iliria (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 14.9 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Lindo FF (1X2) 36.1 45.3 -9.2
Draw (1X2) 29.7 23.8 +5.9
Nacka Iliria (1X2) 34.2 30.9 +3.3
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 63.1 -14.9
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 36.9 +14.9
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 51.8% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 36.9%. The difference — about 14.9 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Lindo FF (1X2) 1.96 1.96 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.74 3.74 0.0
Nacka Iliria (1X2) 2.87 2.87 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.45 1.45 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 2.48 2.48 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Division 2 - Södra Svealand
  • Fixture: Lindo FF vs Nacka Iliria
  • Kickoff: 2026-06-14 13:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.2%
  • xG (showing): Lindo FF 1.32 — Nacka Iliria 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 36.4% · Probability edge: +15.4 pts · Est. EV: +42.4%
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 16, 2026 (UTC)

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Division 2 - Södra Svealand Division 2 - Södra Svealand — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Sleipner 21 13 4 4 43
2 Farsta 21 13 3 5 42
3 Haninge 20 11 3 6 36
4 Forward 20 11 3 6 36
5 Nyköping 20 11 3 6 36
6 Smedby 21 10 5 6 35
7 Rågsved 21 10 5 6 35
8 Fittja 20 9 3 8 30
9 Karlslund 21 6 6 9 24
10 Örebro Syrianska 21 7 2 12 23
11 Nacka Iliria 21 5 3 13 18
12 Lindo FF 21 5 2 14 17
13 Syrianska FC 20 4 5 11 17
14 Eker Örebro 20 4 3 13 15
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Haninge 20 49 36 +13 36
2 Farsta 21 47 22 +25 42
3 Sleipner 21 47 32 +15 43
4 Rågsved 21 40 33 +7 35
5 Smedby 21 39 29 +10 35
6 Forward 20 38 25 +13 36
7 Nyköping 20 34 21 +13 36
8 Fittja 20 33 32 +1 30
9 Karlslund 21 28 35 -7 24
10 Syrianska FC 20 28 48 -20 17
11 Lindo FF 21 27 41 -14 17
12 Örebro Syrianska 21 22 25 -3 23
13 Nacka Iliria 21 22 40 -18 18
14 Eker Örebro 20 22 57 -35 15
Division 2 - Södra Svealand Sweden. Division 2 - Södra Svealand Predictions