Statistics / Football / Sweden. Division 2 - Södra Götaland / Lilla Torg vs Nosaby

Lilla Torg vs Nosaby Statistics & Analysis

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Lilla Torg
Oct 02, 2026 - 17:00
2 1.31
3 1.29
xG Accuracy: 52%
Nosaby Nosaby
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Lilla Torg Nosaby ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-3 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 26, 2026 · 01:47 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10974262

Closing Odds 2.13
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Nosaby win · Lilla Torg 2–3 Nosaby
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Nosaby (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 16.1 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Lilla Torg (1X2) 35.6 41.8 -6.2
Draw (1X2) 29.7 24.9 +4.8
Nosaby (1X2) 34.7 33.3 +1.4
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 64.3 -16.1
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 35.7 +16.1
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 51.8% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 35.7%. The difference — about 16.1 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Lilla Torg (1X2) 2.13 2.13 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.57 3.57 0.0
Nosaby (1X2) 2.67 2.67 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.42 1.42 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 2.56 2.56 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Division 2 - Södra Götaland
  • Fixture: Lilla Torg vs Nosaby
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-02 17:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 35.6% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.7%
  • xG (showing): Lilla Torg 1.31 — Nosaby 1.29 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): BTTS No
  • Model: 45.5% · Implied: 33.2% · Probability edge: +12.3 pts · Est. EV: +36.5%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 06, 2026 (UTC)

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Division 2 - Södra Götaland Division 2 - Södra Götaland — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Karlskrona 23 18 3 2 57
2 IFK Trelleborg 23 14 5 4 47
3 Oskarshamns AIK 24 14 3 7 45
4 Nosaby 24 11 6 7 39
5 Linero 23 12 2 9 38
6 Berga 23 11 4 8 37
7 Växjö Norra 24 9 8 7 35
8 Österlen 23 8 6 9 30
9 Lilla Torg 24 6 10 8 28
10 Sölvesborg 24 9 1 14 28
11 Staffanstorp United 24 6 8 10 26
12 Torns 24 7 0 17 21
13 Räppe 23 4 6 13 18
14 Karlshamn 24 4 2 18 14
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Karlskrona 23 61 20 +41 57
2 Oskarshamns AIK 24 60 30 +30 45
3 IFK Trelleborg 23 49 23 +26 47
4 Berga 23 49 36 +13 37
5 Nosaby 24 45 39 +6 39
6 Linero 23 44 39 +5 38
7 Österlen 23 37 38 -1 30
8 Staffanstorp United 24 37 41 -4 26
9 Sölvesborg 24 35 46 -11 28
10 Lilla Torg 24 33 41 -8 28
11 Växjö Norra 24 31 33 -2 35
12 Torns 24 31 66 -35 21
13 Karlshamn 24 26 60 -34 14
14 Räppe 23 25 51 -26 18
Division 2 - Södra Götaland Sweden. Division 2 - Södra Götaland Predictions