Statistics / Football / Sweden. Division 2 - Södra Götaland / IFK Trelleborg vs Sölvesborg

IFK Trelleborg vs Sölvesborg Statistics & Analysis

IFK Trelleborg IFK Trelleborg
Sep 20, 2026 - 13:00
4 1.33
1 1.27
xG Accuracy: 45%
Sölvesborg Sölvesborg
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 IFK Trelleborg IFK Trelleborg ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 4-1 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 14, 2026 · 01:28 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8669285

Closing Odds 1.32
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result IFK Trelleborg win · IFK Trelleborg 4–1 Sölvesborg
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Sölvesborg (1X2), Under 2.5 goals, BTTS No meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Sölvesborg (1X2) by about 22.8 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
IFK Trelleborg (1X2) 36.6 67.5 -30.9
Draw (1X2) 29.6 21.5 +8.2
Sölvesborg (1X2) 33.8 11.0 +22.8
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 67.5 -19.3
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 32.5 +19.3
BTTS Yes 54.5 60.3 -5.8
BTTS No 45.5 39.7 +5.8
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 33.8% on Sölvesborg (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 11.0%. The difference — about 22.8 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Marathonbet

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
IFK Trelleborg (1X2) 1.32 1.32 0.0
Draw (1X2) 4.15 4.15 0.0
Sölvesborg (1X2) 8.1 8.1 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.34 1.34 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 2.78 2.78 0.0
BTTS Yes 1.51 1.51 0.0
BTTS No 2.29 2.29 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Model favours IFK Trelleborg; market prices IFK Trelleborg instead — inputs may be missing or stale.

  • Model: IFK Trelleborg 1.33 xG vs Sölvesborg 1.27 → IFK Trelleborg 36.6%
  • Market: IFK Trelleborg ~67.5% implied
  • Validation failed — do not treat 1X2 EV as actionable.

Do not act on 1X2 value until validation passes. Structural leans (O/U, BTTS) need separate odds review.

Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS No (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 22, 2026 (UTC)

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Division 2 - Södra Götaland Division 2 - Södra Götaland — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Karlskrona 22 17 3 2 54
2 Oskarshamns AIK 22 13 3 6 42
3 IFK Trelleborg 21 12 5 4 41
4 Berga 22 11 4 7 37
5 Linero 22 11 2 9 35
6 Växjö Norra 21 9 6 6 33
7 Nosaby 21 9 5 7 32
8 Österlen 22 8 5 9 29
9 Lilla Torg 22 6 9 7 27
10 Sölvesborg 21 8 1 12 25
11 Staffanstorp United 22 5 8 9 23
12 Torns 22 7 0 15 21
13 Räppe 22 4 5 13 17
14 Karlshamn 22 3 2 17 11
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Karlskrona 22 57 19 +38 54
2 Oskarshamns AIK 22 55 26 +29 42
3 Berga 22 47 33 +14 37
4 IFK Trelleborg 21 41 19 +22 41
5 Nosaby 21 39 37 +2 32
6 Linero 22 39 38 +1 35
7 Österlen 22 34 35 -1 29
8 Staffanstorp United 22 33 38 -5 23
9 Sölvesborg 21 31 36 -5 25
10 Växjö Norra 21 30 30 0 33
11 Torns 22 30 59 -29 21
12 Lilla Torg 22 28 35 -7 27
13 Räppe 22 24 50 -26 17
14 Karlshamn 22 23 56 -33 11
Division 2 - Södra Götaland Sweden. Division 2 - Södra Götaland Predictions