Statistics / Football / Sweden. Division 2 - Södra Götaland / Torns vs Växjö Norra

Torns vs Växjö Norra Statistics & Analysis

Torns Torns
Sep 05, 2026 - 12:00
1 1.14
3 1.46
xG Accuracy: 63%
Växjö Norra Växjö Norra
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Växjö Norra Växjö Norra ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-2 1-3 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 30, 2026 · 01:35 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-6131588

Closing Odds 1.7
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Växjö Norra win · Torns 1–3 Växjö Norra
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE5 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Torns (1X2), Draw (1X2), Under 2.5 goals, BTTS No meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 15.0 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Torns (1X2) 27.9 23.4 +4.5
Draw (1X2) 29.2 23.8 +5.5
Växjö Norra (1X2) 42.9 52.8 -10.0
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 63.2 -15.0
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 36.8 +15.0
BTTS Yes 53.8 63.2 -9.4
BTTS No 46.2 36.8 +9.4
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 51.8% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 36.8%. The difference — about 15.0 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE5 · Book: Marathonbet

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE5) Implied Δ (pp)
Torns (1X2) 3.84 3.84 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.78 3.78 0.0
Växjö Norra (1X2) 1.7 1.7 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.43 1.43 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 2.46 2.46 0.0
BTTS Yes 1.44 1.44 0.0
BTTS No 2.47 2.47 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Division 2 - Södra Götaland
  • Fixture: Torns vs Växjö Norra
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-05 12:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 27.9% · Draw 29.2% · Away 42.9%
  • xG (showing): Torns 1.14 — Växjö Norra 1.46 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 37.4% · Probability edge: +14.4 pts · Est. EV: +29.5%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 53.8% · No 46.2%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Division 2 - Södra Götaland Division 2 - Södra Götaland — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Karlskrona 23 18 3 2 57
2 IFK Trelleborg 23 14 5 4 47
3 Oskarshamns AIK 23 13 3 7 42
4 Berga 22 11 4 7 37
5 Nosaby 23 10 6 7 36
6 Linero 22 11 2 9 35
7 Växjö Norra 23 9 8 6 35
8 Österlen 22 8 5 9 29
9 Lilla Torg 22 6 9 7 27
10 Sölvesborg 22 8 1 13 25
11 Staffanstorp United 23 5 8 10 23
12 Torns 22 7 0 15 21
13 Räppe 23 4 6 13 18
14 Karlshamn 23 3 2 18 11
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Karlskrona 23 61 20 +41 57
2 Oskarshamns AIK 23 58 30 +28 42
3 IFK Trelleborg 23 49 23 +26 47
4 Berga 22 47 33 +14 37
5 Nosaby 23 42 37 +5 36
6 Linero 22 39 38 +1 35
7 Österlen 22 34 35 -1 29
8 Staffanstorp United 23 33 41 -8 23
9 Sölvesborg 22 32 40 -8 25
10 Växjö Norra 23 31 31 0 35
11 Torns 22 30 59 -29 21
12 Lilla Torg 22 28 35 -7 27
13 Räppe 23 25 51 -26 18
14 Karlshamn 23 24 60 -36 11
Division 2 - Södra Götaland Sweden. Division 2 - Södra Götaland Predictions