Statistics / Football / Sweden. Division 2 - Södra Götaland / Berga vs Staffanstorp United

Berga vs Staffanstorp United Statistics & Analysis

Berga Berga
Aug 22, 2026 - 13:00
1 1.23
1 1.37
xG Accuracy: 85%
Staffanstorp United Staffanstorp United
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Staffanstorp United Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 16, 2026 · 01:37 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-4221270

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Berga 1–1 Staffanstorp United
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Division 2 - Södra Götaland
  • Fixture: Berga vs Staffanstorp United
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-22 13:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 31.9% · Draw 29.6% · Away 38.5%
  • xG (showing): Berga 1.23 — Staffanstorp United 1.37 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 42.7% · Probability edge: +9.1 pts · Est. EV: +9.8%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Division 2 - Södra Götaland Division 2 - Södra Götaland — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Karlskrona 23 18 3 2 57
2 IFK Trelleborg 23 14 5 4 47
3 Oskarshamns AIK 23 13 3 7 42
4 Berga 22 11 4 7 37
5 Nosaby 23 10 6 7 36
6 Linero 22 11 2 9 35
7 Växjö Norra 23 9 8 6 35
8 Österlen 22 8 5 9 29
9 Lilla Torg 22 6 9 7 27
10 Sölvesborg 22 8 1 13 25
11 Staffanstorp United 23 5 8 10 23
12 Torns 22 7 0 15 21
13 Räppe 23 4 6 13 18
14 Karlshamn 23 3 2 18 11
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Karlskrona 23 61 20 +41 57
2 Oskarshamns AIK 23 58 30 +28 42
3 IFK Trelleborg 23 49 23 +26 47
4 Berga 22 47 33 +14 37
5 Nosaby 23 42 37 +5 36
6 Linero 22 39 38 +1 35
7 Österlen 22 34 35 -1 29
8 Staffanstorp United 23 33 41 -8 23
9 Sölvesborg 22 32 40 -8 25
10 Växjö Norra 23 31 31 0 35
11 Torns 22 30 59 -29 21
12 Lilla Torg 22 28 35 -7 27
13 Räppe 23 25 51 -26 18
14 Karlshamn 23 24 60 -36 11
Division 2 - Södra Götaland Sweden. Division 2 - Södra Götaland Predictions