Statistics / Football / Sweden. Division 2 - Södra Götaland / Oskarshamns AIK vs Växjö Norra

Oskarshamns AIK vs Växjö Norra Statistics & Analysis

Oskarshamns AIK Oskarshamns AIK
Jun 17, 2026 - 17:00
2 1.24
0 1.36
xG Accuracy: 56%
Växjö Norra Växjö Norra
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Växjö Norra Oskarshamns AIK ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 08, 2026 · 02:16 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3235619

Closing Odds 2.05
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Oskarshamns AIK win · Oskarshamns AIK 2–0 Växjö Norra
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Växjö Norra (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 8.4 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Oskarshamns AIK (1X2) 32.4 43.4 -11.0
Draw (1X2) 29.6 26.9 +2.7
Växjö Norra (1X2) 38.0 29.8 +8.3
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 56.6 -8.4
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 43.4 +8.4
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 51.8% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 43.4%. The difference — about 8.4 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Oskarshamns AIK (1X2) 2.05 2.05 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.31 3.31 0.0
Växjö Norra (1X2) 2.99 2.99 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.61 1.61 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 2.1 2.1 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Division 2 - Södra Götaland
  • Fixture: Oskarshamns AIK vs Växjö Norra
  • Kickoff: 2026-06-17 17:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 32.4% · Draw 29.6% · Away 38.0%
  • xG (showing): Oskarshamns AIK 1.24 — Växjö Norra 1.36 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 42.4% · Probability edge: +9.4 pts · Est. EV: +16.6%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 16, 2026 (UTC)

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Division 2 - Södra Götaland Division 2 - Södra Götaland — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Karlskrona 21 16 3 2 51
2 Oskarshamns AIK 21 13 3 5 42
3 IFK Trelleborg 21 12 5 4 41
4 Berga 21 10 4 7 34
5 Linero 21 11 1 9 34
6 Växjö Norra 21 9 6 6 33
7 Nosaby 21 9 5 7 32
8 Österlen 21 8 4 9 28
9 Lilla Torg 21 6 8 7 26
10 Sölvesborg 21 8 1 12 25
11 Staffanstorp United 21 5 7 9 22
12 Torns 20 6 0 14 18
13 Räppe 21 3 5 13 14
14 Karlshamn 20 3 2 15 11
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Karlskrona 21 55 19 +36 51
2 Oskarshamns AIK 21 55 24 +31 42
3 Berga 21 43 32 +11 34
4 IFK Trelleborg 21 41 19 +22 41
5 Nosaby 21 39 37 +2 32
6 Linero 21 37 36 +1 34
7 Österlen 21 32 33 -1 28
8 Sölvesborg 21 31 36 -5 25
9 Staffanstorp United 21 31 36 -5 22
10 Växjö Norra 21 30 30 0 33
11 Torns 20 27 56 -29 18
12 Lilla Torg 21 26 33 -7 26
13 Räppe 21 22 49 -27 14
14 Karlshamn 20 21 50 -29 11
Division 2 - Södra Götaland Sweden. Division 2 - Södra Götaland Predictions