Statistics / Football / Sweden. Division 2 - Norra Svealand / Enskede vs Falu BS

Enskede vs Falu BS Statistics & Analysis

Enskede Enskede
Oct 03, 2026 - 11:00
2 1.23
0 1.37
xG Accuracy: 56%
Falu BS Falu BS
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Falu BS Enskede ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 27, 2026 · 01:10 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-11221074

Closing Odds 1.62
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Enskede win · Enskede 2–0 Falu BS
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Falu BS (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Falu BS (1X2) by about 17.8 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Enskede (1X2) 31.9 54.8 -22.9
Draw (1X2) 29.6 24.5 +5.1
Falu BS (1X2) 38.5 20.7 +17.8
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 56.1 -8.0
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 43.9 +8.0
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 38.5% on Falu BS (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 20.7%. The difference — about 17.8 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Enskede (1X2) 1.62 1.62 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.63 3.63 0.0
Falu BS (1X2) 4.29 4.29 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.64 1.64 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 2.1 2.1 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Division 2 - Norra Svealand
  • Fixture: Enskede vs Falu BS
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-03 11:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 31.9% · Draw 29.6% · Away 38.5%
  • xG (showing): Enskede 1.23 — Falu BS 1.37 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 44.2% · Probability edge: +7.6 pts · Est. EV: +12.4%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 04, 2026 (UTC)

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Division 2 - Norra Svealand Division 2 - Norra Svealand — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Skiljebo 24 17 5 2 56
2 Sunnersta 24 15 5 4 50
3 Enskede 24 15 4 5 49
4 Angby 23 14 6 3 48
5 Täby 24 12 5 7 41
6 Falu BS 24 12 5 7 41
7 Gute 24 9 5 10 32
8 Bollstanäs 24 8 7 9 31
9 Franke 23 8 4 11 28
10 Kungsängen 24 4 10 10 22
11 Lidingö 24 5 5 14 20
12 Viggbyholms IK 24 5 4 15 19
13 Korsnäs 23 3 5 15 14
14 Helges 23 2 4 17 10
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Sunnersta 24 58 21 +37 50
2 Skiljebo 24 56 25 +31 56
3 Angby 23 49 27 +22 48
4 Bollstanäs 24 43 45 -2 31
5 Täby 24 42 25 +17 41
6 Enskede 24 41 24 +17 49
7 Gute 24 38 35 +3 32
8 Falu BS 24 37 30 +7 41
9 Franke 23 37 40 -3 28
10 Kungsängen 24 27 37 -10 22
11 Lidingö 24 26 52 -26 20
12 Korsnäs 23 24 54 -30 14
13 Viggbyholms IK 24 23 49 -26 19
14 Helges 23 20 57 -37 10