Statistics / Football / Sweden. Division 2 - Norra Svealand / Bollstanäs vs Täby

Bollstanäs vs Täby Statistics & Analysis

Bollstanäs Bollstanäs
Aug 22, 2026 - 12:00
2 1.34
1 1.26
xG Accuracy: 78%
Täby Täby
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Bollstanäs Bollstanäs ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 16, 2026 · 01:22 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-4216946

Closing Odds 2.1
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Bollstanäs win · Bollstanäs 2–1 Täby
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Bollstanäs (1X2), Draw (1X2), Under 2.5 goals, BTTS No meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 12.7 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Bollstanäs (1X2) 37.0 33.2 +3.9
Draw (1X2) 29.6 24.2 +5.4
Täby (1X2) 33.4 42.6 -9.3
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 60.9 -12.7
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 39.1 +12.7
BTTS Yes 54.5 62.5 -8.0
BTTS No 45.5 37.5 +8.0
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 51.8% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 39.1%. The difference — about 12.7 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Bet365

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Bollstanäs (1X2) 2.7 2.7 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.7 3.7 0.0
Täby (1X2) 2.1 2.1 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.53 1.53 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 2.38 2.38 0.0
BTTS Yes 1.5 1.5 0.0
BTTS No 2.5 2.5 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Division 2 - Norra Svealand
  • Fixture: Bollstanäs vs Täby
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-22 12:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 37.0% · Draw 29.6% · Away 33.4%
  • xG (showing): Bollstanäs 1.34 — Täby 1.26 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 38.3% · Probability edge: +13.5 pts · Est. EV: +24.8%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Division 2 - Norra Svealand Division 2 - Norra Svealand — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Skiljebo 23 16 5 2 53
2 Sunnersta 23 15 5 3 50
3 Angby 22 13 6 3 45
4 Enskede 22 13 4 5 43
5 Falu BS 22 12 5 5 41
6 Täby 23 11 5 7 38
7 Gute 23 9 5 9 32
8 Bollstanäs 22 7 7 8 28
9 Franke 22 7 4 11 25
10 Lidingö 23 5 5 13 20
11 Kungsängen 22 3 10 9 19
12 Viggbyholms IK 23 5 4 14 19
13 Korsnäs 23 3 5 15 14
14 Helges 23 2 4 17 10
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Sunnersta 23 57 19 +38 50
2 Skiljebo 23 54 24 +30 53
3 Angby 22 46 25 +21 45
4 Täby 23 39 25 +14 38
5 Bollstanäs 22 38 42 -4 28
6 Gute 23 37 33 +4 32
7 Enskede 22 36 23 +13 43
8 Falu BS 22 35 25 +10 41
9 Franke 22 35 39 -4 25
10 Lidingö 23 26 48 -22 20
11 Kungsängen 22 24 34 -10 19
12 Korsnäs 23 24 54 -30 14
13 Viggbyholms IK 23 23 46 -23 19
14 Helges 23 20 57 -37 10
Division 2 - Norra Svealand Sweden. Division 2 - Norra Svealand Predictions