Statistics / Football / Sweden. Division 2 - Norra Götaland / Lidköping vs Vänersborgs FK

Lidköping vs Vänersborgs FK Statistics & Analysis

Lidköping Lidköping
Oct 03, 2026 - 14:00
1 1.41
0 1.19
xG Accuracy: 64%
Vänersborgs FK Vänersborgs FK
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Lidköping Lidköping ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 0-0 1-0 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 27, 2026 · 02:24 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-11239237

Closing Odds 1.85
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Lidköping win · Lidköping 1–0 Vänersborgs FK
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade A

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE10 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Vänersborgs FK (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 9.5 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Lidköping (1X2) 40.5 48.0 -7.5
Draw (1X2) 29.4 25.7 +3.7
Vänersborgs FK (1X2) 30.1 26.3 +3.8
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 57.7 -9.5
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 42.3 +9.5
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 51.8% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 42.3%. The difference — about 9.5 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE10 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE10) Implied Δ (pp)
Lidköping (1X2) 1.85 1.85 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.45 3.45 0.0
Vänersborgs FK (1X2) 3.37 3.37 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.6 1.6 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 2.18 2.18 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Division 2 - Norra Götaland
  • Fixture: Lidköping vs Vänersborgs FK
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-03 14:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 40.5% · Draw 29.4% · Away 30.1%
  • xG (showing): Lidköping 1.41 — Vänersborgs FK 1.19 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 42.4% · Probability edge: +9.4 pts · Est. EV: +16.6%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.2% · No 45.8%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 04, 2026 (UTC)

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Division 2 - Norra Götaland Division 2 - Norra Götaland — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Husqvarna 24 20 3 1 63
2 Skara 24 16 5 3 53
3 IFK Skövde 24 14 5 5 47
4 Ahlafors 23 11 7 5 40
5 Grebbestad 23 12 3 8 39
6 Herrestads 23 9 7 7 34
7 Stenungsund 24 9 6 9 33
8 Vänersborgs FK 24 8 4 12 28
9 Lidköping 24 7 6 11 27
10 Motala 23 6 8 9 26
11 Kumla 24 6 7 11 25
12 Tord 23 3 9 11 18
13 IF Karlstad II 23 2 7 14 13
14 Vänersborgs IF 24 2 3 19 9
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Husqvarna 24 58 18 +40 63
2 Skara 24 51 26 +25 53
3 Ahlafors 23 49 26 +23 40
4 Stenungsund 24 43 33 +10 33
5 IFK Skövde 24 42 25 +17 47
6 Grebbestad 23 42 33 +9 39
7 Herrestads 23 41 42 -1 34
8 Motala 23 33 32 +1 26
9 Vänersborgs FK 24 30 40 -10 28
10 Lidköping 24 29 42 -13 27
11 Tord 23 26 42 -16 18
12 Vänersborgs IF 24 24 69 -45 9
13 Kumla 24 23 42 -19 25
14 IF Karlstad II 23 23 44 -21 13
Division 2 - Norra Götaland Sweden. Division 2 - Norra Götaland Predictions