Lidköping vs Vänersborgs IF Statistics & Analysis

Lidköping

Sep 20, 2026 - 15:00

5 1.39

2 1.21

xG Accuracy: 30%

Vänersborgs IF

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (7 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Lidköping Lidköping ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 5-2 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 14, 2026 · 02:07 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8684121

Closing Odds 1.76

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Lidköping win · Lidköping 5–2 Vänersborgs IF

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE5 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Vänersborgs IF (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 11.1 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Lidköping (1X2)	39.5	50.5	-11.0
Draw (1X2)	29.5	25.4	+4.1
Vänersborgs IF (1X2)	31.0	24.1	+6.9
Over 2.5 goals	48.2	59.3	-11.1
Under 2.5 goals	51.8	40.7	+11.1

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 51.8% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 40.7%. The difference — about 11.1 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE5 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE5)
Lidköping (1X2)	1.76	1.76
Draw (1X2)	3.5	3.5
Vänersborgs IF (1X2)	3.68	3.68
Over 2.5 goals	1.54	1.54
Under 2.5 goals	2.24	2.24

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: Division 2 - Norra Götaland
Fixture: Lidköping vs Vänersborgs IF
Kickoff: 2026-09-20 15:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 39.5% · Draw 29.5% · Away 31.0%
xG (showing): Lidköping 1.39 — Vänersborgs IF 1.21 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
Model: 51.8% · Implied: 39.2% · Probability edge: +12.6 pts · Est. EV: +29.5%
BTTS (model): Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Selective Lean - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics

Division 2 - Norra Götaland — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Husqvarna	23	19	3	1	60
2	Skara	23	15	5	3	50
3	IFK Skövde	22	12	5	5	41
4	Ahlafors	23	11	7	5	40
5	Grebbestad	23	12	3	8	39
6	Herrestads	22	9	7	6	34
7	Stenungsund	22	8	6	8	30
8	Vänersborgs FK	23	8	4	11	28
9	Kumla	23	6	7	10	25
10	Lidköping	23	6	6	11	24
11	Motala	22	5	8	9	23
12	Tord	22	3	9	10	18
13	IF Karlstad II	22	2	7	13	13
14	Vänersborgs IF	23	2	3	18	9

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Husqvarna	23	54	18	+36	60
2	Ahlafors	23	49	26	+23	40
3	Skara	23	48	25	+23	50
4	Grebbestad	23	42	33	+9	39
5	Herrestads	22	41	38	+3	34
6	IFK Skövde	22	38	25	+13	41
7	Stenungsund	22	38	29	+9	30
8	Vänersborgs FK	23	30	39	-9	28
9	Motala	22	29	32	-3	23
10	Lidköping	23	28	42	-14	24
11	Tord	22	25	37	-12	18
12	Vänersborgs IF	23	24	65	-41	9
13	IF Karlstad II	22	23	43	-20	13
14	Kumla	23	22	39	-17	25