Statistics / Football / Sweden. Division 2 - Norra Götaland / Stenungsund vs Vänersborgs FK

Stenungsund vs Vänersborgs FK Statistics & Analysis

Stenungsund Stenungsund
Sep 11, 2026 - 17:00
0 1.28
1 1.32
xG Accuracy: 64%
Vänersborgs FK Vänersborgs FK
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Vänersborgs FK Vänersborgs FK ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 05, 2026 · 01:44 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7032441

Closing Odds 1.73
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Vänersborgs FK win · Stenungsund 0–1 Vänersborgs FK
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade A

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

The largest late implied swing on this feed was about 0.91 percentage points on Stenungsund (1X2) between PRE30 and PRE1.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 16.9 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Stenungsund (1X2) 34.2 51.9 -17.7
Draw (1X2) 29.7 23.8 +5.9
Vänersborgs FK (1X2) 36.1 24.3 +11.8
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 65.1 -16.9
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 34.9 +16.9
BTTS Yes 54.5 65.0 -10.5
BTTS No 45.5 35.0 +10.5
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 51.8% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 34.9%. The difference — about 16.9 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Marathonbet

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Stenungsund (1X2) 1.76 1.73 +0.9
Draw (1X2) 3.74 3.78 -0.2
Vänersborgs FK (1X2) 3.6 3.7 -0.7
Over 2.5 goals 1.39 1.39 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 2.59 2.59 0.0
BTTS Yes 1.4 1.4 0.0
BTTS No 2.6 2.6 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Division 2 - Norra Götaland
  • Fixture: Stenungsund vs Vänersborgs FK
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-11 17:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 34.2% · Draw 29.7% · Away 36.1%
  • xG (showing): Stenungsund 1.28 — Vänersborgs FK 1.32 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 35.2% · Probability edge: +16.6 pts · Est. EV: +39.9%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Division 2 - Norra Götaland Division 2 - Norra Götaland — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Husqvarna 23 19 3 1 60
2 Skara 23 15 5 3 50
3 IFK Skövde 22 12 5 5 41
4 Ahlafors 23 11 7 5 40
5 Grebbestad 23 12 3 8 39
6 Herrestads 22 9 7 6 34
7 Stenungsund 22 8 6 8 30
8 Vänersborgs FK 23 8 4 11 28
9 Kumla 23 6 7 10 25
10 Lidköping 23 6 6 11 24
11 Motala 22 5 8 9 23
12 Tord 22 3 9 10 18
13 IF Karlstad II 22 2 7 13 13
14 Vänersborgs IF 23 2 3 18 9
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Husqvarna 23 54 18 +36 60
2 Ahlafors 23 49 26 +23 40
3 Skara 23 48 25 +23 50
4 Grebbestad 23 42 33 +9 39
5 Herrestads 22 41 38 +3 34
6 IFK Skövde 22 38 25 +13 41
7 Stenungsund 22 38 29 +9 30
8 Vänersborgs FK 23 30 39 -9 28
9 Motala 22 29 32 -3 23
10 Lidköping 23 28 42 -14 24
11 Tord 22 25 37 -12 18
12 Vänersborgs IF 23 24 65 -41 9
13 IF Karlstad II 22 23 43 -20 13
14 Kumla 23 22 39 -17 25
Division 2 - Norra Götaland Sweden. Division 2 - Norra Götaland Predictions