Statistics / Football / Georgia. Erovnuli Liga / Samgurali vs Dinamo Tbilisi

Samgurali vs Dinamo Tbilisi Statistics & Analysis

Samgurali Samgurali
Sep 19, 2026 - 16:00
2 1.27
3 1.33
xG Accuracy: 52%
Dinamo Tbilisi Dinamo Tbilisi
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Dinamo Tbilisi Dinamo Tbilisi ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-3 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 14, 2026 · 03:00 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8701334

Closing Odds 1.99
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Dinamo Tbilisi win · Samgurali 2–3 Dinamo Tbilisi
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE5 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Samgurali (1X2), Draw (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Samgurali (1X2) by about 7.2 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Samgurali (1X2) 33.8 26.5 +7.2
Draw (1X2) 29.6 27.5 +2.2
Dinamo Tbilisi (1X2) 36.6 46.0 -9.4
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 52.1 -3.9
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 47.9 +3.9
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 33.8% on Samgurali (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 26.5%. The difference — about 7.2 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE5 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE5) Implied Δ (pp)
Samgurali (1X2) 3.45 3.45 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.33 3.33 0.0
Dinamo Tbilisi (1X2) 1.99 1.99 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.82 1.82 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 1.98 1.98 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Erovnuli Liga
  • Fixture: Samgurali vs Dinamo Tbilisi
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-19 16:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 33.8% · Draw 29.6% · Away 36.6%
  • xG (showing): Samgurali 1.27 — Dinamo Tbilisi 1.33 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 47.5% · Probability edge: +4.3 pts · Est. EV: +3.6%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Erovnuli Liga Erovnuli Liga — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Dinamo Batumi 27 13 8 6 47
2 Saburtalo 26 14 4 8 46
3 Rustavi 27 13 7 7 46
4 Dinamo Tbilisi 26 12 9 5 45
5 Dila 27 12 4 11 40
6 Torpedo Kutaisi 27 9 9 9 36
7 Samgurali 27 9 5 13 32
8 Gagra 27 6 11 10 29
9 Spaeri 27 5 10 12 25
10 Meshakhte 27 2 11 14 17
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Dinamo Batumi 27 46 36 +10 47
2 Dinamo Tbilisi 26 43 29 +14 45
3 Torpedo Kutaisi 27 43 34 +9 36
4 Dila 27 38 30 +8 40
5 Samgurali 27 38 52 -14 32
6 Saburtalo 26 37 28 +9 46
7 Spaeri 27 34 43 -9 25
8 Rustavi 27 32 23 +9 46
9 Gagra 27 25 37 -12 29
10 Meshakhte 27 20 44 -24 17
Erovnuli Liga Georgia. Erovnuli Liga Predictions