Statistics / Football / Georgia. Erovnuli Liga / Gagra vs Torpedo Kutaisi

Gagra vs Torpedo Kutaisi Statistics & Analysis

Gagra Gagra
Sep 10, 2026 - 17:00
1 1.23
1 1.37
xG Accuracy: 85%
Torpedo Kutaisi Torpedo Kutaisi
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Torpedo Kutaisi Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 04, 2026 · 01:40 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-6850294

Closing Odds 2.01
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Draw · Gagra 1–1 Torpedo Kutaisi
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Gagra (1X2), Draw (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Gagra (1X2) by about 5.3 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Gagra (1X2) 31.9 26.7 +5.3
Draw (1X2) 29.6 27.8 +1.8
Torpedo Kutaisi (1X2) 38.5 45.5 -7.0
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 50.9 -2.7
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 49.1 +2.7
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 31.9% on Gagra (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 26.7%. The difference — about 5.3 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Gagra (1X2) 3.43 3.43 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.29 3.29 0.0
Torpedo Kutaisi (1X2) 2.01 2.01 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.86 1.86 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 1.93 1.93 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Erovnuli Liga
  • Fixture: Gagra vs Torpedo Kutaisi
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-10 17:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 31.9% · Draw 29.6% · Away 38.5%
  • xG (showing): Gagra 1.23 — Torpedo Kutaisi 1.37 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None (actionable) — best tracked EV is about +0.5%, still below the +2.0% minimum for a headline / default stake (no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 16, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Erovnuli Liga Erovnuli Liga — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Rustavi 25 12 7 6 43
2 Dinamo Batumi 25 12 7 6 43
3 Dinamo Tbilisi 24 10 9 5 39
4 Saburtalo 23 11 4 8 37
5 Dila 24 11 3 10 36
6 Torpedo Kutaisi 25 8 9 8 33
7 Samgurali 25 9 5 11 32
8 Gagra 25 6 10 9 28
9 Spaeri 25 5 10 10 25
10 Meshakhte 25 2 10 13 16
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Dinamo Batumi 25 41 32 +9 43
2 Torpedo Kutaisi 25 38 29 +9 33
3 Dinamo Tbilisi 24 36 27 +9 39
4 Samgurali 25 34 46 -12 32
5 Spaeri 25 33 38 -5 25
6 Saburtalo 23 32 27 +5 37
7 Rustavi 25 31 21 +10 43
8 Dila 24 31 25 +6 36
9 Gagra 25 24 32 -8 28
10 Meshakhte 25 19 42 -23 16
Erovnuli Liga Georgia. Erovnuli Liga Predictions