Statistics / Football / Iceland. Úrvalsdeild / Thor Akureyri vs IBV Vestmannaeyjar

Thor Akureyri vs IBV Vestmannaeyjar Statistics & Analysis

Thor Akureyri Thor Akureyri
Jun 14, 2026 - 16:30
1 1.29
4 1.31
xG Accuracy: 44%
IBV Vestmannaeyjar IBV Vestmannaeyjar
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 IBV Vestmannaeyjar IBV Vestmannaeyjar ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-4 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 24, 2026 · 14:18 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1604928

Closing Odds 2.17
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result IBV Vestmannaeyjar win · Thor Akureyri 1–4 IBV Vestmannaeyjar
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

The largest late implied swing on this feed was about 2.19 percentage points on Draw (1X2) between PRE30 and PRE1.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 16.0 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Thor Akureyri (1X2) 34.1 30.2 +3.9
Draw (1X2) 28.0 25.9 +2.1
IBV Vestmannaeyjar (1X2) 37.9 43.9 -6.0
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 64.2 -16.0
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 35.8 +16.0
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 51.8% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 35.8%. The difference — about 16.0 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Thor Akureyri (1X2) 2.96 3.15 -2.0
Draw (1X2) 4.01 3.67 +2.2
IBV Vestmannaeyjar (1X2) 2.16 2.17 -0.2
Over 2.5 goals 1.46 1.48 -0.7
Under 2.5 goals 2.7 2.65 +0.7

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Úrvalsdeild
  • Fixture: Thor Akureyri vs IBV Vestmannaeyjar
  • Kickoff: 2026-06-14 16:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 34.1% · Draw 28.0% · Away 37.9%
  • xG (showing): Thor Akureyri 1.29 — IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1.31 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 35.0% · Probability edge: +16.8 pts · Est. EV: +49.2%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Úrvalsdeild Úrvalsdeild — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Vikingur Reykjavik 22 16 5 1 53
2 Fram Reykjavik 22 13 6 3 45
3 KR Reykjavik 22 13 5 4 44
4 Breidablik 22 8 6 8 30
5 IA Akranes 22 8 6 8 30
6 Keflavik 22 8 4 10 28
7 Stjarnan 22 8 4 10 28
8 Valur Reykjavik 22 8 3 11 27
9 FH hafnarfjordur 22 4 9 9 21
10 Thor Akureyri 22 6 3 13 21
11 KA Akureyri 22 5 5 12 20
12 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 22 4 6 12 18
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 KR Reykjavik 22 74 49 +25 44
2 Vikingur Reykjavik 22 67 21 +46 53
3 Fram Reykjavik 22 56 42 +14 45
4 Breidablik 22 43 41 +2 30
5 Stjarnan 22 42 50 -8 28
6 IA Akranes 22 39 41 -2 30
7 Valur Reykjavik 22 39 45 -6 27
8 KA Akureyri 22 35 48 -13 20
9 Keflavik 22 33 38 -5 28
10 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 22 32 45 -13 18
11 FH hafnarfjordur 22 27 39 -12 21
12 Thor Akureyri 22 22 50 -28 21