Statistics / Football / USA. NWSL Women / Kansas City W vs Bay FC

Kansas City W vs Bay FC Statistics & Analysis

Kansas City W Kansas City W
Oct 03, 2026 - 22:30
5 2.42
1 1.60
xG Accuracy: 42%
Bay FC Bay FC
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Kansas City W Kansas City W ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 2-1, 1-1, 3-1, 2-2, 1-2 5-1 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 27, 2026 · 04:00 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-11263285

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Kansas City W win · Kansas City W 5–1 Bay FC
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade A

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: NWSL Women
  • Fixture: Kansas City W vs Bay FC
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-03 22:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 54.9% · Draw 21.0% · Away 24.0%
  • xG (showing): Kansas City W 2.42 — Bay FC 1.6 (total xG ≈ 4.02)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): BTTS Yes
  • Model: 73.6% · Implied: 61.0% · Probability edge: +12.6 pts · Est. EV: +19.2%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 73.6% · No 26.4%
  • Correct score (top bin): 2-1 (8.4%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Selective Lean - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 05, 2026 (UTC)

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NWSL Women NWSL Women — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 NJ/NY Gotham FC W 26 16 6 4 54
2 San Diego Wave W 27 16 3 8 51
3 Washington Spirit W 26 14 4 8 46
4 Utah Royals W 27 14 4 9 46
5 Kansas City W 27 13 5 9 44
6 Portland Thorns W 26 12 7 7 43
7 Angel City W 26 12 6 8 42
8 North Carolina Courage W 27 13 3 11 42
9 Seattle Reign FC 27 12 4 11 40
10 Denver Summit W 26 9 8 9 35
11 Orlando Pride W 27 10 3 14 33
12 Houston Dash W 26 8 6 12 30
13 Boston Legacy W 26 7 5 14 26
14 Bay FC 27 7 5 15 26
15 Racing Louisville W 27 7 3 17 24
16 Chicago Red Stars W 26 5 2 19 17
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 North Carolina Courage W 27 50 39 +11 42
2 Kansas City W 27 48 38 +10 44
3 Angel City W 26 44 28 +16 42
4 Utah Royals W 27 44 35 +9 46
5 Portland Thorns W 26 43 35 +8 43
6 Denver Summit W 26 42 37 +5 35
7 San Diego Wave W 27 40 28 +12 51
8 Washington Spirit W 26 36 24 +12 46
9 Orlando Pride W 27 36 43 -7 33
10 Racing Louisville W 27 36 52 -16 24
11 NJ/NY Gotham FC W 26 34 20 +14 54
12 Seattle Reign FC 27 33 32 +1 40
13 Houston Dash W 26 32 36 -4 30
14 Boston Legacy W 26 32 44 -12 26
15 Bay FC 27 28 42 -14 26
16 Chicago Red Stars W 26 15 60 -45 17
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 San Diego Wave W 27 7.6 4.5 +3.1 51
2 Denver Summit W 26 3.9 1.9 +2.0 35
3 Bay FC 27 3.1 1.4 +1.7 26
4 Orlando Pride W 27 4.6 3.5 +1.1 33
5 North Carolina Courage W 27 2.3 1.2 +1.1 42
6 Boston Legacy W 26 3.9 2.9 +1.0 26
7 Seattle Reign FC 27 3.2 2.3 +0.9 40
8 Utah Royals W 27 1.5 1.9 -0.4 46
9 Kansas City W 27 3.7 4.2 -0.5 44
10 Washington Spirit W 26 1.2 2.3 -1.1 46
11 Angel City W 26 1.7 3.0 -1.3 42
12 Portland Thorns W 26 3.0 4.5 -1.5 43
13 Racing Louisville W 27 1.4 3.1 -1.7 24
14 Houston Dash W 26 1.9 3.9 -2.0 30
15 Chicago Red Stars W 26 1.2 3.5 -2.3 17
16 NJ/NY Gotham FC W 26 — — — 54