Statistics / Football / USA. NWSL Women / Orlando Pride W vs San Diego Wave W

Orlando Pride W vs San Diego Wave W Statistics & Analysis

Orlando Pride W Orlando Pride W
Oct 03, 2026 - 00:00
1 1.75
2 1.68
xG Accuracy: 74%
San Diego Wave W San Diego Wave W
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Orlando Pride W San Diego Wave W ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 2-1, 1-2, 2-2, 1-0 1-2 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 27, 2026 · 00:50 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-11216226

Closing Odds 1.93
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result San Diego Wave W win · Orlando Pride W 1–2 San Diego Wave W
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Orlando Pride W (1X2), Over 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Orlando Pride W (1X2) by about 10.5 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Orlando Pride W (1X2) 38.9 28.4 +10.5
Draw (1X2) 25.0 24.1 +0.9
San Diego Wave W (1X2) 36.1 47.5 -11.4
Over 2.5 goals 66.6 60.0 +6.5
Under 2.5 goals 33.4 40.0 -6.5
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 38.9% on Orlando Pride W (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 28.4%. The difference — about 10.5 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Orlando Pride W (1X2) 3.23 3.23 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.8 3.8 0.0
San Diego Wave W (1X2) 1.93 1.93 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.55 1.55 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 2.33 2.33 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: NWSL Women
  • Fixture: Orlando Pride W vs San Diego Wave W
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-03 00:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 38.9% · Draw 25.0% · Away 36.1%
  • xG (showing): Orlando Pride W 1.75 — San Diego Wave W 1.68 (total xG ≈ 3.43)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): BTTS Yes
  • Model: 68.5% · Implied: 59.9% · Probability edge: +8.6 pts · Est. EV: +11.0%
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 04, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
NWSL Women NWSL Women — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 NJ/NY Gotham FC W 26 16 6 4 54
2 San Diego Wave W 27 16 3 8 51
3 Washington Spirit W 26 14 4 8 46
4 Utah Royals W 27 14 4 9 46
5 Kansas City W 27 13 5 9 44
6 Portland Thorns W 26 12 7 7 43
7 Angel City W 26 12 6 8 42
8 North Carolina Courage W 27 13 3 11 42
9 Seattle Reign FC 27 12 4 11 40
10 Denver Summit W 26 9 8 9 35
11 Orlando Pride W 27 10 3 14 33
12 Houston Dash W 26 8 6 12 30
13 Boston Legacy W 26 7 5 14 26
14 Bay FC 27 7 5 15 26
15 Racing Louisville W 27 7 3 17 24
16 Chicago Red Stars W 26 5 2 19 17
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 North Carolina Courage W 27 50 39 +11 42
2 Kansas City W 27 48 38 +10 44
3 Angel City W 26 44 28 +16 42
4 Utah Royals W 27 44 35 +9 46
5 Portland Thorns W 26 43 35 +8 43
6 Denver Summit W 26 42 37 +5 35
7 San Diego Wave W 27 40 28 +12 51
8 Washington Spirit W 26 36 24 +12 46
9 Orlando Pride W 27 36 43 -7 33
10 Racing Louisville W 27 36 52 -16 24
11 NJ/NY Gotham FC W 26 34 20 +14 54
12 Seattle Reign FC 27 33 32 +1 40
13 Houston Dash W 26 32 36 -4 30
14 Boston Legacy W 26 32 44 -12 26
15 Bay FC 27 28 42 -14 26
16 Chicago Red Stars W 26 15 60 -45 17
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 San Diego Wave W 27 7.6 4.5 +3.1 51
2 Denver Summit W 26 3.9 1.9 +2.0 35
3 Bay FC 27 3.1 1.4 +1.7 26
4 Orlando Pride W 27 4.6 3.5 +1.1 33
5 North Carolina Courage W 27 2.3 1.2 +1.1 42
6 Boston Legacy W 26 3.9 2.9 +1.0 26
7 Seattle Reign FC 27 3.2 2.3 +0.9 40
8 Utah Royals W 27 1.5 1.9 -0.4 46
9 Kansas City W 27 3.7 4.2 -0.5 44
10 Washington Spirit W 26 1.2 2.3 -1.1 46
11 Angel City W 26 1.7 3.0 -1.3 42
12 Portland Thorns W 26 3.0 4.5 -1.5 43
13 Racing Louisville W 27 1.4 3.1 -1.7 24
14 Houston Dash W 26 1.9 3.9 -2.0 30
15 Chicago Red Stars W 26 1.2 3.5 -2.3 17
16 NJ/NY Gotham FC W 26 — — — 54
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